Monday, October 29, 2012

The Ukrainian Election

Preliminary results would indicate that President Yanukovych's Party of the Regions will form the next government.

The Kyiv Post reported at 5:30 Ukraine time the following results:

These are the preliminary results as of 17.30 p.m.
Preliminary results of the leading parties that pass the 5 percent threshold on the closed party list. Figures taken from the Central Election Commission, after 69.21 percent of protocols were counted.
PartyPercentage of votesNumber of votes
Party of Regions33.514 564 369
Batkivshchyna22.973 129 026
Communist Party14.511 976 813
UDAR13.131 789 236
Svoboda8.951 219 979
Preliminary results of the leading candidates in the single mandate districts. Figures taken from the Central Election Commission. Results are based on 59.22 percent of votes counted.
The First-past-the-post results can be seen here and are being updated as new counts come in.
Exit polls do not agree with the counts above that show the Regionnaires and the Communists with a lower percentage of the vote and the Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) and UDAR with a higher percentage.
The Economist's Eastern Approaches blog believes that Yanukovych will get a simple majority but not a Constitution changing 2/3 majority, which means that Ukraine gets a shot at unseating him in 2015. 
The Party of the Regions and its allies are unlikely to win two thirds of the seats in parliament. It wanted this in order to change the constitution to abolish direct elections to the presidency. This would lower the risk for the unpopular Mr Yanukovych of losing the presidential race in 2015. If direct elections were abolished the president would be elected by parliament.

4 comments:

  1. Thanks for the update and insights.

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  2. Struggles to rule never change. I guess we should count ourselves lucky we both live in countries that at least give the illusion of popular vote amounting to something.

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  3. I clicked on the link with updated results. I see with almost 100% counted the gap has narrowed but the result is unchanged

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  4. thanks for sharing..

    ReplyDelete