And Closer

According to the most recent reports I have seen the "Aid" convoy is being inspected by Ukrainian border guards on the Russian side.  Some of the commenters noted that some of the trucks seemed to be relatively empty, though I have found no English language news reports of this.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2014/08/14/eyeball-to-eyeball-russian-humanitarian-convoy-approached-unguarded-border-with-ukrainian-tanks-moving-to-meet-them/

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/15/us-ukraine-crisis-convoy-idUSKBN0GF0D020140815

The exact purpose of the "Aid" convey is yet to be revealed. The cottage industry of pundits has many hypotheses, of course.  I am reminded of the guy who crossed the border every day pushing a wheelbarrow loaded with sand.  The sand was searched thoroughly every day but nothing was found.  Finally they gave up and "We know you are smuggling something and if we leave you alone, will you tell us what it is".  "Simple.  Wheelbarrows."

Two Guardian reporters who accompanied the convoy stated they saw a number (20+) of armed personnel carriers with Russian insignia on them cross into Ukraine Thursday night, and Ukrainian news reports that the Ukrainian army clashed with them and destroyed some. Russia of course denies this, for what that is worth. Russian military equipment seems to cross the border quite freely and frequently.
http://www.voanews.com/content/ukraine-russia-military-convoy/2414222.html 

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/kiev-says-its-forces-clashed-with-russian-troops-inside-ukraine-border/505198.html

In spite of the claim by Putin et al that Russia is not involved and has no control of the situation Lavrov said he spoke to the terrorists and they would allow the "Aid" convoy to proceed.  No doubt.  Although the journalist suggests that it will come under fire from the terrorists anyway, as they are already shelling the corridor to prevent civilians from leaving Luhansk. (Use Google Translate)
http://espreso.tv/news/2014/08/13/humanitarnyy_konvoy_veze_prykhovani_systemy_navedennya_vohnyu_hotuyetsya_masshtabna_provokaciya___dzherela

One thing sure, Putin is not going to back off.  However, on  lighter note, we do have allies.  A friend of Andrei's just got back from Turkey.  At the resort, Ukrainians and Russians got into a discussion and eventually into a brawl.  Polish and German guests came in on the Ukraine side. The Turkish staff stayed out of it but were definitely sympathetic to Ukraine.

You may have also heard, Putin has banned all food imports from any countries which have applied sanctions against Russia. Since Russia imports some 30% of its food, there are fears that this presages a return to Soviet bread lines.

Articles worth reading:

Hot Issue – Lies, Damned Lies and Russian Disinformation

http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=42745&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=6ccbe7697870188378d5960d23bb0f3a#.U-6XPcWSySq

Ukraine's Oligarchs are still calling the shots

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/08/14/ukraines_oligarchs_are_still_calling_the_shots_0

What Canadians really think about Harper, Obama and Putin

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/what-canadians-really-think-about-harper-obama-and-putin/article20076917/

War seems ever closer

The last post on this blog was June 6.  Tanya and I went to Canada and reading the depressing news from Ukraine did not seem a good way to spend one's holidays.  Tanya has returned home.  I am stuck in Canada until Sept 8th.  I lost/misplaced my Permanent Residency document so must stay out 90 days and return as a visitor when I can get a replacement.  I said to Tanya that I was so sorry I was so stupid.  She said she was sorry too.

The ATO (anti-terrorist operation) in eastern Ukraine continues and the Ukrainian military is slowly getting the best of it, recovering territory formerly held the the terrorists and slowly encircling Donetsk city.

The accidental shooting down of the Malaysian airliner by the pro-Russian terrorists on July 17 was a criminal act, the more so because the intended target MAY have been a Russian airliner filled with tourists.  It would have fallen on Ukrainian controlled territory and been blamed on the ATO, giving the Russian military the excuse they needed to invade, which they were apparently set to do July 18, to "keep the peace".

Killing your own people to score political and military points is not unknown. The FSB blew up Moscow apartment buildings to provide an excuse to start the second Chechen war that brought Putin to power. They were caught in the act of setting charges to blow up another. (There is some suggestion that other nations may also be guilty of allowing military or terrorist actions which proved advantageous in starting "desireable" wars.)

With his proxy warriors facing defeat, Putin must act.  Plan B seems to be humanitarian aid. They already tried to run a "humanitarian aid" convoy heavily guarded by Russian troops across the line by were stopped by some frantic diplomatic activity on the part of Proroshenko and others. No a convoy of white painted military trucks filled with "humanitarian aid" has left Moscow enroute to Ukraine.

Russia is telling its people that the convoy has the agreement of Ukraine and the Red Cross.  The Red Cross says they were never consulted and have no idea what is in the trucks.  Ukraine says the Russian trucks are welcome to offload their cargo on the Russian side of the border and reload it onto Red Cross trucks.

The Russian side does not have its story straight as the Emergency Measures people who are supposed to be in charge of the convoy disclaim all knowledge of it too.  If this ploy succeeds, Homer may well have material for two new epic poems.  For full details, see below:

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/controversial-russian-humanitarian-aid-convoy-stops-on-its-way-to-ukraine-360505.html

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/08/12/russia_ukraine_humanitarian_aid_convoy_putin_trojan_horse_red_cross

Fankful Friday

1. Apparently yesterday was NOT Wednesday.  So I guess I can be thankful that Tanya has not arranged for Social Services to send someone do do an appraisal.

2. Work on the house is progressing but every finished job seems to start another. The concrete walk along the north side of the house is finished.  It is not so much a walk as a way to drain water away from the foundation as weeping tile is unknown.  The cement floor is poured in what was the dogs' room and will be finished tomorrow.

The new gates on the dogs yard are more or less finished; they need paint on some of the welded areas and proper closures on the big gates.  Vladik, the welder, put the latch on the small gate to open up instead of down so that the dogs can't open it, though I wouldn't put it past Volk to figure out how to lift the handle.  He is now rebuilding the metal doors on the garage and we will reinsulate them to help keep our house warmer.

The roofing arrived tonight and is stacked carefully.  The sheets are 5 meters long and 1.5 wide.  Plain brown but will look quite nice.

3. We have adequate moisture and now are getting heat.  30+C yesterday and today.  Plants are jumping.  Many more of Tanya's flowers are blooming and her garden is doing well.  Sveta will be busy when we are away canning and freezing.

Fresh dill for the freezer

Neighbours' gardens beside the river/marsh

4. The dogs never cease to surprise me by not acting according to expectations.  They get a walk in the morning then spend the day tied up under the trees in Babushka's yard so they are outside and out of the way.  Today Bobik managed to unsnap his leash from his collar and simply stayed under his tree until I came along and snapped him up again.  Volk pulled his collar strap through the buckle (he needs a new collar) today also and took off for the river for a swim.  Then instead of making me chase him, he came home and ran up to me all happy to have his collar put back on.  Must be the heat affected both of them.

5. We are pretty much packed and ready to go.  We take the express train to Kyiv tomorrow evening and catch a Sunday morning 6:00 am plane, arriving in Calgary at 1:30 pm.  (I only wish the flight was actually 7.5 hours, rather than 15.5).  We are in Canada for 7 weeks.  It has been a long time since we have had a chance to visit with people so this is it.

Google autofill: I am thankful every hour of every day for Tanya.

Ukraine - War and Propaganda

The war between the Ukrainian Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) and the Russian terrorists continues and has moved uptown so to speak.

No one (except maybe the Kremlin) are pretending there are no Russians in eastern Ukraine.  There are estimated to be some 4500 experienced Russian fighters in Donetsk and Luhansk.  They are led by Russians.  The self proclaimed whatever of the self proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic is a Russian propaganda specialist from Moscow.  These guys are stepping up the pressure on the local citizens as well

Finally Ukraine is going to lock down the border, 3 months too late.  I read somewhere the reason they hadn't so far was that it was too profitable for too many Ukrainian Deputies smuggling stuff including arms to and from Russia. give you an idea of what we are up against.

The Vostok Battalion has been recreated though most likely unofficially and well armed.  It is about 80% Russian nationalists of which a good percentage are Chechens with a lot of experience in combating terrorism with terrorism.  A few days ago, the Vostok Battalion took over the Admin Building in Donetsk and turfed the ragtag band of local losers who were pretending to govern.  It is no longer a local fight at all, though likely 20% of the fighters are still locals, with 10% fighting for money and 10% revolutionary dreamers.  There is a good interview HERE with the commander of the Volunteer Donbas Battalion which is part of the Ukrainian National Guard.

A couple of bases in Luhansk have fallen to the terrorists who have been attacking several hundred at a time.  They like to take shelter in hospitals, schools and residential areas and not let civilians leave.  Human shields hamper the activities of the ATO, obviously. And  civilian deaths are worth a fortune in propaganda value to Russia.  Russia paints the ATO as Nazi terrorists wantonly slaughtering peaceful unarmed civilian protesters.

Here are three articles that give you an idea of how peaceful these terrorists are:
ONE, TWO, THREE.  Attacking Christians of several denominations, shutting down all freedom of the press and refusing to allow refugees to leave.  A couple more: FOUR and FIVE , the Chechens and kidnapping. And here is a new one.  $1000 USD per adult and $500 per child to be allowed to leave Kramatorsk.  Do you suppose the idiots in eastern Ukraine are having second thoughts about this Russia, Russia, Russia thing?  Not likely as there were not many of them to start with but propaganda and street thugs go a long way.

Russian propaganda is embarrassing to everyone but Russians, I guess. THIS link is in German but the pictures posted are in English.  They have been stealing pictures and video from all over the world and presenting it as though it were in Ukraine.  Why do people believe this stuff?  Well, remember there are people who believe everything they see and hear on FOX News or from Alex Jones, and if that is all you are allowed and are bombarded with it day and night...

If there are any military readers of this blog, take a look at these two links regarding an explosion in Luhansk which killed a number of civilians.  The Russians are wetting themselves because it "proves" ATO are deliberately killing civilians, others are less certain that it was not a false flag operation.  I don't have a clue about either explanation from these videos.
http://euromaidanpr.com/2014/06/03/an-analysis-of-events-in-lugansk/ 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJUIkwe6PF4&feature=youtu.be

Thankful Thursday come on a Friday this week

1. I am thankful I am old enough to have enjoyed the source of the above reference.

2. The dogs got their annual haircut.  I comb them out for about a week first to remove the masses of fine insulating hair that grows in outdoor dogs.  Then Tanya wields the scissors.  Not fancy but a lot cooler. Volk flops down on the table and doesn't move.  Bobik sits or stands.  If we want him down we have to throw and hold him like a calf.  It all grows back by fall.

Bobik

Volk

2. The garden is growing rapidly.  Tanya has already frozen huge amounts of fresh dill for soups and salads next winter and given away bags full.  That is why the corn and watermelon look weed free.  Next year Tanya says she will put in two more sprinkler hoses so they are 2.5 meters apart which she says is optimum.

Corn in the top left, strawberries front and centre

Watermelon in back, tomatoes front right

Vegetable garden

3. Work is progressing slowly but surely and well done too.  The new gates may be finished tomorrow.  Andrei has figured out the Weed Whip and our "lawns" are looking more like they should.

Bunch grass does not for a filled in lawn make

4. For Euro 2012, Ukraine bought several Hyundai passenger trains, two of which made the paired runs morning and evening between Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk.  Until they were all pulled for repair work under warranty.  We need to go to Kyiv on June 7 in the evening to catch the early morning plane but could not get information nor tickets.  Wednesday they announced that Kyiv-Dnipropetrovsk Hyundai service would be resuming June 1 and we now have our tickets.  So we don't have to take the morning train and kill 12 hours.

5. My good office chair is repaired and useable.  The man welding the gate frames welded the two broken legs for me.  Now if I can find new castor wheels, it is like new again.  The downside of a comfortable chair is that I fall asleep at the computer.

Google Autofill: I am thankful every hour of every day for Tanya.

Ukraine - three days into a new chance to succeed.

Proroshenko is not wasting any time as there is none to waste. He told Putin that as far s Yanukovych being the legitimate president of Ukraine that no one had asked Putin or any other Russian to interpret the Ukrainian constitution.  And our Foreign Minister in response to Russian (Putin and Lavrov) continuous calls to "cease the violence in eastern Ukraine" suggested that they could blow that idea out the orifice of their choice and sent a protest note regarding Russian Border Service continually allowing heavily armed Russian terrorists to cross the Ukrainian border.  Their response: We didn't see anybody.

Proroshenko has also doubled down on the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO). Pro-Russian terrorists made the mistake of getting separated from their civilian shields by capturing the Donetsk Prokofiev International Airport (rebuilt for Euro 2012).  The Ukrainian army blasted them out of there in a hurry, killing as many as 45, destroying an open truck load of terrorists on their way to reinforce their bandit brothers (Ukrainian version) or a closed truck with a Red Cross loaded with wounded on their way to the hospital (Russian version).

The Ukrainian military also wiped out a terrorist training camp in Luhansk, just a few hundred meters from the Russian border and potentially covered by Russian anti-aircraft guns and missiles.

Since the ATO has been as careful as possible about civilian deaths, the Kremlin backed terrorists are helping them, randomly shelling homes with mortar fire and randomly shooting civilians to create footage for Russian TV which can then be blamed on the fascist Ukrainian army.

Russian propaganda may have to look for a new theme, at least outside of Russia.  As the picture below illustrates, the Far Right did not do well in the Ukrainian election while in many European countries it took 20% to 25% of the popular vote for the European Union Parliament.  The European Nationalist Parties are very scary people who solidly support Putin's Russia, where Right Wing Nationalists actually are the government.  Timothy Snyder writes that Ukraine might be the solution to Europe's fascist problem.

Britain's UKIP took 27%, I believe.

Meanwhile back in the USSR...I mean Russia, they have banned a film about Stalin's deportation of the entire Chechen nation in 1944 on the grounds that it is "anti-Russian and a falsification of history".  Meaning it tells the truth, I suppose.

The West has put travel bans on a handful of Oligarchs but Putin has banned international travel for as many as 5 million Russians and the number may continue to increase.

Ukraine's problems are not going away any time soon as "The Survey Says"...  A recent Pew Research Center poll in Russia shows that 61 percent of Russian citizens think that parts of neighboring countries rightfully belong to the Russian Federation.  And Paul Goble, quoting historian Yuri Felshtinsky, “Putin’s Ukrainian complex can be compared only with Stalin’s Polish complex and Hitler’s Jewish complex.”

The sad legacy of all this is that Ukrainians seem to becoming infected with "Russian Disease", of “intolerance, aggression, militarism and chauvinism” in response to Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk.  I need to watch myself in this regard.

Ukraine - Election

With 80% of the votes counted, Proroshenko maintains 54% of the vote, enough that a second round need not be held June 15.  This is a relief to everyone.  Turnout was reported at 60% which when adjusted for Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk worked out to 70% of those registered and able to vote. The election was given a clean bill of health by the international observers who said that the only real problems were the ones everyone knew about ie the terrorists in the east.

An attempt at hacking the Election Commission computer system and inserting a virus which would declare Right Sector(1) Candidate Yarosh to have won with 37% of the votes (requiring a run off ) was foiled only 40 minutes before Russian television went on the air and announced it.

Proroshenko is the best of a not a lot of choice.  Hopefully the desperate situation the country is in will force him to continue on the road to reform, though it will not be easy.  Here is what has been accomplished in the past three months.

Cleaning up the terrorists in the east will not be easy.  There are a lot of experienced fighters from Chechnya coming across the border and a great deal of heavy armaments and equipment.  Those of us who are arm-chair generals need to heed the following articles, Here and here, one of which starts Ukraine has the army it has. Which is to say Ukraine can only work with what it has.  Yesterday the SBU seized a few crates of arms headed for Mariupol which will come in handy for the army.

I have not seen a statement yet from Putin whether or not Russia will recognize the new president/government.  Putin was quoted yesterday as saying Ukraine could have votes on anything they wished but Yanukovych was still the legal president of Ukraine.  Of course Putin is also quoted as saying that Russia is practicality giving their gas to Ukraine and that the use of force to seize Crimea was justified as Ukraine's actions threatened them. Them who?  Crimeans or Russians?  Putin does seem to live in alternate universes.

Some links to other interesting stuff:
The video below was milked to death by Russian propagandists to prove how terrible the Nazi's were that took over the government.  The tall guy is the Oblast prosecutor in Zhytomyr and the heavy guy is a thug with Right Sector.  When I was sent this link as "proof" I was a bit skeptical as under Yanukovych the prosecutors were the most venal of all civil servants as they decide who gets investigated for everything including tax evasion and were all appointed from Yanukovych Party of not all from Donetsk.

That the heavyset guy is a thug was not in question as he was involved in criminal activity and since died in a hail of bullets in a legit police raid BUT there is always more to a story.

In an interview with the 2IC of Right Sector the interviewer asks about the story and here is the response:
In fact, Muzychko saved the life of this prosecutor. The latter released the man and put a brake on the case of the murdered woman. Armed people who gathered wanted to burn this prosecutor’s office together with him. Muzychko volunteered to stop the conflict and went to the prosecutor. If he had brought flowers to the prosecutor, people would have torn both of them. Thus, he settled the conflict. People were satisfied and the prosecutor re-opened the case.

Besides the fascist, Nazi stuff the Russians also wore out the record that Kyiv was prohibiting the speaking of Russian.  This link describes the law that was repealed though the repeal was vetoed. Since nobody ever read it everyone was quite prepared to believe that the law gave Russian special status.  Since it was about 18 minority languages and even under Yanukovych it was never implemented, there was a great deal of anxiety about nothing.  (sounds like the ACA).

Anyone interested in a little history of Crimea might find this of value - it is an article describing the construction of the canal from the Dnipro River that brings water to almost all of Crimea. The construction of this canal was one of the reasons Crimea was transferred to Ukraine in 1954.

(1) Note: The Right Sector is a Ukrainian nationalist organization that is repeatedly cited by Russian media as typical of the supposed “fascist” nature of Ukraine’s pro-Western forces.