Schrodinger's War

Pulling the petals off a daisy (she loves me; she loves me not) would be about as useful as trying to sort any usefulness from the many pundits prognosticating on the likelihood of war with Russia. 

I have shared to Facebook a few positive spins simply to reassure people at home. I am not so reassured any more. Last count was 170,000 to 190,000 troops including National Guard surrounding us on four sides, looking for an excuse to invade.

There has been a huge increase in shelling of towns and villages, including a kindergarten, from the Russian side along the Donbas front , in a village, as the Ukrainians are under orders not to fire back and escalate the situation. Of course the Russians blame the Ukrainians. 

Today a Russian appointed leader, Denis Pushilin, the head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic of Donbas, have ordered the evacuation of civilians, especially women and children, into neighbouring Russia out of fear of Ukrainian  military attacks, stating that the country is headed for war. 

This is 1.5 to 2 million people. Residents there are angry at the forced evacuation saying nothing is happening and everything is staged. Does this include pictures of lineups at gas pumps, I wonder? Putin reacted to the situation in the Donbass. Acting head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations urgently flies to the Rostov region. On behalf of the President, he will create conditions for the accommodation of refugees. Everyone arriving in the Rostov region from the Donbass will be given 10,000 rubles each.

That is one convoy I would avoid like the plague. Have you seen pictures of the Highway of Death in Iraq after the first Iraqi war? The Russians will shell it and blame the Ukrainians. Then they have their war. 

A scenario discussed on Ukrainian Twitter: buses with residents of Luhansk and Donetsk regions, who have been ordered to evacuate to Russia (and many of whom hold Russian passports), may be hit by Russian artillery and an attack would be blamed on Ukraine as a pretext for an invasion.

A car bomb exploded under the car of Major General Denis Sinenkov, chief of the DPR People's Militia Directorate. He was not in the car. Surprise, surprise, surprise. Reporters were immediately (instantaneously?) at the scene claiming terrorist bomb. Of course.

The FSB and GRU have compiled detailed list of people to be assassinated or jailed when they attack and as they take over territory. This will include dissidents from Russia and Belarus, Ukrainian politicians, anyone deemed in opposition or who could potentially lead opposition. (A list like that could run into many thousands. When Suharto overthrew Sukarno in Indonesia in 1967, he had a list of thousands of people to assassinate, handily supplied by the CIA of course). 

The ability to mount partisan resistance will depend n people's willingness to die and on the level of counter insurgency measures taken. How many Lidice's will people suffer before giving in. Western Ukraine had a taste of it from 1945 to 1955 when the Red Army and KGB put down the partisans fighting for Ukrainian independence. Thousands killed and deported. If Russia attacks, there is nothing to gain by playing nice inside Ukraine's borders.

I have two bottles of expensive whisky that Tanya bought me that I am going to start drinking. I'm not leaving them for the Russian Philistines.

Thoughts on Freedom

 The past couple of weeks have been hard for me to collect my thoughts enough to write a coherent post. Constant updates on both the pending Russian invasion (a continuation of one they began in 2014) and the so called "Freedom Convoy" creating chaos across Canada have kept me busy reading but never catching up.

The Freedom Convoy is doing exactly what it was intended to do, play on people's anger in the name of freedom. It had nothing to do with the cross-border vaccination mandate which was the same for bother Canada and USA. That was a smoke screen, designed to give some measure of legitimacy and attract truckers to the cause. No one has ever used big rigs as heavy weapons before though the organizers tried it in 2019. The fact that it has the support of the extreme right in Canada, America and elsewhere in the world, should make it clear it is NOT about freedom.

Then there is Ukraine which after centuries of colonial domination by Poland or Russia, is trying to be free to set its own course as a nation. A free and democratic nation (even such as it is) on the Russian border is a great threat to Putin. And since Putin cannot bring Russia into the 20 century, never mind the 21st, he is determined to take the rest of the world down to their level. 

The western nations led by USA are correct in calling out Putin's aggression as an immediate danger for two reasons. If they downplayed it and Russia did attack us, it would be political suicide, especially after Biden downplayed the DoD's call for an advance evacuation plan of Afghanistan. It also puts the West in control of the narrative and Russia is left to deny deny deny and in fact change their plans if they were indeed exposed. 

I will write a decent post about the Freedom Convoy sometime. Just not right now. 

Fighting the Black Dog

 

Sunless days are not kind to me. I need sun in my face every day. Looked at buying a sun lamp but thought maybe lengthening days would help. Yes, if every day wasn't cloudy.

I take Lucky out for his midnight ablutions. Takes toy, drops toy and pees, checks neighbours cat who sleeps in a nest in our outbuilding, takes a dump, picks up toy, goes back to the house to bed. Then I lie awake for hours fighting battles from yesterday, 10 years ago, 30 years ago, 50 years ago with people long since dead. Nothing important.

My oldest is a professional counsellor so she gets dumped on too often. Since I am a relative she can't charge me. she gave me a couple of meditation apps I will try out. Insight Timer and calm.com 

I walked Lucky today. First time since he dumped me on my face a week ago. Temp was -2C and streets were mostly free of ice. Had a near miss but stayed upright. Getting out helped both his mood and mine. 

In the meantime, listening to this young lady, now 13, is a mood lifter. Enjoy.

New Rules on my Blog

 I am tired of dealing with trolls who will not give a name. If I turn off Anonymous comments, only people with a Google account can comment. Do all my commenters have Google accounts? I don't know. People who blog on WordPress? 

So I have gone to comment moderation which bugs me no end. 

Pussycat, pussycat, where have you been?

 Internet is working today so I best get a blog post done.

A week or so ago, I got an email from Google Maps Timeline as follows:

Allen, here's your 2021 Timeline update. You're receiving this email because you turned on Location History, a Google Account-level setting that saves where you go in your private Timeline. Location History data also helps give you personalized information on Google, including better restaurant recommendations, and suggestions for a faster commute. You can view, edit, and delete this data anytime in Timeline.

First time I ever got this information. I did turn on Location History, out of curiosity when I got my new phone in mid December. I had my new SIM card, phone number, and ISP in early August 2019 but do not recall having checked Location History on my old phone. They had it anyway and going back quite a few years to another SIM card, phone number, and ISP. I went back to 2017 and no further. Strangely enough it had nothing from Canada except my Grey St address.

It told me how many countries I had been to in 2021 (2), how many cities in those countries (5), how many places I went (43) shopping (12) and restaurants (4) with names and locations. It mapped the places I had been in Zhovti Vody. Most were actual places I could name but some were just locations. It told me how many km I had traveled in total, by public transport, by car and on foot. 

It told me how many countries I had been to that they had data for, how many cities and how many total places. Then it gave me the option to view, edit or delete Location History. As if that would get rid of it.

Tanya thought it was hilarious. Now I'll know when you go to visit your girlfriend. Did it tell you how often you went to the toilet?

Places I was tracked in Zhovti Vody in 2021

Where we stayed in Malaga in May, 2017

An example of the information on the places I visited
Clicking on one brought up a detailed map

Yesterday this article was in WaPo. 

Google deceived consumers about how it profits from their location data, attorneys general allege in lawsuits.

It describes in detail all the little tricks Google uses to get and keep for resale your locations. Google counters that users can opt out but they neglect to mention that you have to find ALL the opt out places or it doesn't count. Read it just for fun.

“Google’s misleading, ambiguous, and incomplete descriptions of these settings all but guarantee that consumers will not understand when their location is collected and retained by Google or for what purposes,” the D.C. lawsuit states. “And, in reality, regardless of the settings they select, consumers who use Google products have no option but to allow the Company to collect, store, and use their location.”

The D.C. lawsuit details how Google users must navigate a number of “conflicting” settings to control how Google collects and uses their location details. Even when a user changes the settings in their account or device to stop their location data from being saved or transmitted, the suits allege Google can still collect and store it through other Google services, WiFi and Bluetooth scans, or location data shared with Google by its marketing partners. 

 And finally this from The Hartmann Report: My Dishwasher Wants to Spy on Me!

“It’s a smart dishwasher,” she told me, handing me the instruction manual.  “Figure out how to hook it up to my cell phone so we can control it remotely.”

I dutifully read the manual and downloaded the app from the overseas company that made the dishwasher.  And that’s where it got weird. 

Even though the dishwasher is in my house, and would be on my in-house WiFi network along with her phone, the app required me to give them my Google or Facebook login information to access their network in another country which would, in turn, control my dishwasher. 

The thermostat in our house, for example, tells the California company that sells it all about our habits, including when we’re home or not. Our home temperature data could tell the company if somebody is having a medical problem from pernicious anemia or using beta blockers for hypertension (and so is keeping the house abnormally warm) to menopause (popping temperatures all over the place). It could tell a company selling insulation if we need some, or a potential burglar the best time to pop a window. 

 A 2014 Federal Trade Commission report found that even the simplest, most basic and easily purchased profiles on you and me typically include:

Name •Previously Used Names •Address •Address History •Longitude and Latitude •Phone Numbers •Email Address •Social Security Number •Driver’s License Number •Birth Date •Birth Dates of Each Child in Household •Birth Date of Family Members in Household •Age •Height •Weight •Gender •Race and Ethnicity •Country of Origin •Religion (by Surname at the Household Level) •Language •Marital Status •Presence of Elderly Parent •Presence of Children in Household •Education Level •Occupation •Family Ties •Demographic Characteristics of Family Members in Household •Number of Surnames in Household •Veteran in Household •Grandparent in House •Spanish Speaker •Foreign Language Household (e.g., Russian, Hindi, Tagalog, Cantonese) •Households with a Householder Who Is Hispanic Origin or Latino •Employed—White Collar Occupation •Employed—Blue Collar Occupation •Work at Home •Length of Residence •Household Size •Congressional District •Single Parent with Children •Ethnic and Religious Affiliations •Court and Public Record Data •Bankruptcies •Criminal Offenses and Convictions •Judgments •Liens •Marriage Licenses •State Licenses and Registrations (e.g., Hunting, Fishing, Professional) •Voting Registration and Party •Electronics Purchases •Friend Connections •Internet Connection •Internet Provider •Level of Usage •Heavy Facebook User •Heavy Twitter User •Twitter User with 250+ Friends •Is a Member of over 5 Social Networks •Online Influence •Operating System •Software Purchases •Type of Media Posted •Uploaded Pictures •Use of Long Distance Calling Services •Presence of Computer Owner •Use of Mobile Devices •Social Media and Internet Accounts including: Digg, Facebook, Flickr, Flixster, Friendster, hi5, Hotmail, LinkedIn, Live Journal, MySpace, Twitter, Amazon, Bebo, CafeMom, DailyMotion, Match, myYearbook, NBA.com, Pandora, Photobucket, WordPress, and YahooHome and Neighborhood Data •Census Tract Data •Address Coded as Public/Government Housing •Dwelling Type •Heating and Cooling •Home Equity •Home Loan Amount and Interest Rate •Home Size •Lender Type •Length of Residence •Listing Price •Market Value •Move Date •Neighborhood Criminal, Demographic, and Business Data •Number of Baths •Number of Rooms •Number of Units •Presence of Fireplace •Presence of Garage •Presence of Home Pool •Rent Price •Type of Owner •Type of Roof •Year •Apparel Preferences •Attendance at Sporting Events •Charitable Giving •Gambling—Casinos •Gambling—State Lotteries •Thrifty Elders •Life Events (e.g., Retirement, Newlywed, Expectant Parent) •Magazine and Catalog Subscriptions •Media Channels Used •Participation in Outdoor Activities (e.g., Golf, Motorcycling, Skiing, Camping) •Participation in Sweepstakes or Contests •Pets •Political Leanings •Assimilation Code •Preferred Celebrities •Preferred Movie Genres •Preferred Music Genres •Reading and Listening Preferences •Donor (e.g., Religious, Political, Health Causes) •Financial Newsletter Subscriber •Upscale Retail Card Holder •Affluent Baby Boomer •Working-Class Moms •Working Woman •African-American Professional •Membership Clubs •Membership Clubs—Wines •Exercise—Sporty Living •Winter Activity Enthusiast •Participant—Motorcycling •Outdoor/Hunting and Shooting •Biker/Hell’s Angels •Santa Fe/Native American Lifestyle •New Age/Organic Lifestyle •Is a Member of over 5 Shopping Sites •Media Channel Usage—Daytime TV •Bible Lifestyle •Leans Left •Political Conservative •Political Liberal •Activism and Social Issues •Ability to Afford Products •Credit Card User •Presence of Gold or Platinum Card •Credit Worthiness •Recent Mortgage Borrower •Pennywise Mortgagee •Financially Challenged •Owns Stocks or Bonds •Investment Interests •Discretionary Income Level •Credit Active •Credit Relationship with Financial or Loan Company •Credit Relationship with Low-End Standalone Department Store •Number of Investment Properties Owned •Estimated Income •Life Insurance •Loans •Net Worth Indicator •Underbanked Indicator •Tax Return Transcripts •Type of Credit Cards •Vehicle Brand Preferences •Insurance Renewal •Make & Model •Vehicles Owned •Vehicle Identification Numbers •Vehicle Value Index •Propensity to Purchase a New or Used Vehicle •Propensity to Purchase a Particular Vehicle Type (e.g., SUV, Coupe, Sedan) •Motor Cycle Owner (e.g., Harley, Off-Road Trail Bike) •Motor Cycle Purchased 0–6 Months Ago •Boat Owner •Purchase Date •Purchase Information •Intend to Purchase—Vehicle •Read Books or Magazines About Travel •Travel Purchase—Highest Price Paid •Date of Last Travel Purchase •Air Services—Frequent Flyer •Vacation Property •Vacation Type (e.g., Casino, Time Share, Cruises, RV) •Cruises Booked •Preferred Vacation Destination •Preferred Airline •Amount Spent on Goods •Buying Activity •Method of Payment •Number of Orders •Buying Channel Preference (e.g., Internet, Mail, Phone) •Types of Purchases •Military Memorabilia/Weaponry •Shooting Games •Guns and Ammunition •Christian Religious Products •Jewish Holidays/Judaica Gifts •Kwanzaa/African-Americana Gifts •Type of Entertainment Purchased •Type of Food Purchased •Average Days Between Orders •Last Online Order Date •Last Offline Order Date •Online Orders $500–$999.99 Range •Offline Orders $1,000+ Range •Number of Orders—Low-Scale Catalogs •Number of Orders—High-Scale Catalogs •Retail Purchases—Most Frequent Category •Mail Order Responder—Insurance •Mailability Score •Apparel—Women’s Plus Sizes •Apparel—Men’s Big and Tall •Books—Mind and Body/Self-Help •Internet Shopper •Novelty Elvis •Ailment and Prescription Online Search Propensity •Propensity to Order Prescriptions by Mail •Smoker in Household •Tobacco Usage •Over the Counter Drug Purchases •Geriatric Supplies •Use of Corrective Lenses or Contacts •Allergy Sufferer •Have Individual Health Insurance Plan •Buy Disability Insurance •Buy Supplemental to Medicare/Medicaid Individual Insurance •Brand Name Medicine Preference •Magazines—Health •Weight Loss and Supplements •Purchase History or Reported Interest in Health Topics including: Allergies, Arthritis, Medicine Preferences, Cholesterol, Diabetes, Dieting, Body Shaping, Alternative Medicine, Beauty/Physical Enhancement, Disabilities, Homeopathic Remedies, Organic Focus, Orthopedics, and Senior Needs.

As Joe Lewis said, "You can run but you can't hide." 

The Vagaries of the Internet

 For the past month, our IP, KyivStar, has been quite terrible and even worse in the new year. We have a wireless receiver with a router sending WiFi to our computers and cell phones. Service has been touch and go as we live in a valley, 5 km from signal source but it has never been this bad. Our next door neighbour has the same set up and no service either. We hear people in town are having the same problem.

Customer Service cannot get their tech people to even return calls so I suspect they are tearing their hair out tying to solve the problem and are tired of being pestered. 

But at midnight, it works. Last night I was downloading stuff at speeds unheard of. but in daylight, nothing.  And tonight it is also working. Wonder of wonders. Sorry, it is not the Russians. Ukraine is perfectly capable of screwing things up on their own 

I can download email to my phone but cannot open any of the headlines to the articles. I am not going to stay up late to read WaPo or anything else. And I am writing this post to explain I am not staying up late to write on my blog which may be hit and miss for a while. I am not Heather Cox Richardson who often posts her Letters from an American which summarize and comment on the day's political news at 3:00 am Maine time. When storms haven't cut her electricity.

The benefit to me is that I have cut back on my news consumption and am reading for pleasure. Since January 3I, have read seven John LeCarre novels and am into my eighth one. 

I do not like not knowing everything that is going on but do keep up with anything to do with Russia and Ukraine. By the way, Russia has moved attack and transport helicopters and attack fighter jets to the Ukrainian border. I wish we had a couple thousand SAMs eg Stingers and another 10,000 Javelin anti-tank missiles. 

Wish us luck.

Why is Orthodox Christmas Celebrated January 7th?

 Tomorrow, January 7^th, is Orthodox Christmas. When I was growing up in Saskatchewan, it was called Ukrainian Christmas as we have a large Ukrainian population, many of which are Ukrainian Orthodox. My wife calls December 25^th Catholic Christmas and January 7^th Christian Christmas. So why the difference in dates of 13 days?

In 46 BC, Julius Caesar developed the Julian Calendar which was the most accurate at the time and was adopted by all the Christian world. The first recorded Christmas celebration was in Rome on December 25, AD 336. Various factors contributed to the selection of December 25 as a date of celebration: it was the date of the winter solstice on the Roman calendar and it was nine months after March 25, the date of the vernal equinox and a date linked to the conception of Jesus (celebrated as the Feast of the Annunciation).

The Julian Calendar had a problem in that it was 11 minutes longer than the astronomical year so ever 128 years was out one day on the astronomical year and after 1500 years, was 10 days behind. Pope Gregory XIII introduced the Gregorian calendar in 1582. The Gregorian Calendar corrected the astronomical error with the Leap Year and by jumping from October 4^th to October 15^th, corrected the lag in days. Many countries immediately adopted this calendar. However, the Orthodox Communities did not.

In 1918, Soviet Russia and a then independent Ukraine adopted the Gregorian calendar, by which time the Julian calendar was 13 (or 14?) days behind. The Gregorian calendar was quickly picked up by the secular world but the Russian, Ukrainian and several other Orthodox Churches did not. They continued to celebrate Christian holidays by the old calendar. Which is to say December 25^th on the Julian Calendar is January 7^th on the Gregorian Calendar. That is why Julian Easter Sunday is usually on or after Gregorian Easter Sunday and many other recognized holy days are on different dates.

Today, the Russian, Jerusalem, Serbian, Georgian, and Polish Orthodox Churches live by the Julian calendar, as well as the monasteries on Mount Athos in Greece and the Orthodox and Greek Catholic Christians of Ukraine. This makes up roughly 56% of the world’s Orthodox Christians, and 6.6% of all Christians (12% of the world’s Christians are Orthodox). The rest of the Orthodox world lives and celebrates by the Gregorian Calendar.

While true Ukrainians celebrate tonight, Christmas Eve, with 12 meatless dishes, we carnivores at our house will have cold cuts, roast duck, steamed fish and vegetables, and salads. Just the two of us. We ought to go to midnight service but will ask Lina to light a couple candles for us as she is faithful in attendance.