Armed Forces of Ukraine are on a Roll

 This post will be out of date before I finish, things are moving that fast. 

AFU Howitzer in action on the eastern front

Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have been successfully targeting ammunition dumps, command, control and communication centres, railroads and bridges with HIMAR rockets. AFU threatened a counter offensive in Kherson in southern Ukraine, succeeded in drawing thousands of troops to the west side of the Dnipro River and then knocked out the bridges, trapping them there. Russian forces continued to wear themselves down unsuccessfully trying to move forward in the pocket between Izyum and Donetsk City in east central Ukraine. Russians continue to shell, bomb and fire rockets into civilian areas of Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Nikopol, Krivii Rih, and other cities, as well as shelling villages along the front line with barrel artillery .

Four days ago, the AFU launched a counter offensive between Kharkiv and Izyum with the intention of taking Kup'yans'k on the Oksil River, cutting the road and railroad used to supply the Russian military in Izyum and isolating Izum. Once they broke through the Russian lines, there was no stopping them as there were no backup defenses and apparently no reserves. Any place that was defended, such as Balaklia, they bypassed and left to be cleaned up by AFU second and third groups. Once the Russians saw they were outnumbered they surrendered in such numbers that the AFU said they had no place to put them. 

The animated map shows the first three days of the counter offensive. https://twitter.com/i/status/1568227635641331713

Police have moved into the liberated villages to begin investigating war crimes. Considering that they found in the communities held by the Russians for a few weeks before the attack on Kyiv was driven off, one can only imagine the horrors they will find. 

Russians are fleeing in such numbers that Russia has become the largest supplier of military equipment to Ukraine. Russians cannot fight but instead increased the bombardment of civilian areas in towns and cities, and killing and injuring many people. 

In three days they reached the Oksil river south of Kup'yans'k and turned south towards Izyum. Fighting continues at Kup'yans'k but the bridge is destroyed and they have no exit. AFU have now reached the village of Oksil to the south and east of Izyum while Ukrainian attacks from Lyman and Svyatohirs'k south and east of Izyum will link if they have not already, totally surrounding Izyum and 10,000 to 20,000 Russian soldiers. They also captured a very senior Russian General who was commander of the front. 

Russians are fleeing Lyman and Svyatohirs'k, and Izyum is not being reinforced. Attempts are made to supply Izyum with helicopters but AFU missiles make it a dangerous proposition.

Most current map showing Russians fleeing and Ukrainians driving south

A more detailed explanation.

Russians are sending reinforcements from Donetsk Oblast north to counter the AFU offensive but they are too late and are likely to add to the death and destruction of the Russian military. And if they weaken that front too much, expect AFU to take advantage. They have got the Russians on the backfoot. The armchair generals on twitter are worried about the Ukrainian flanks, however Patton had something to say about flanks. 

Not sure when the American lend-lease goes into effect but watch this Ukrainian soldier as two A10 Warthogs fly overhead https://twitter.com/i/status/1568210289190998017

This table from the AFU is unreliable as no one can keep up with the numbers these past few days 

Tomorrow maybe I can post about the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP)

Lucky's Big Day

 Lucky is so happy to have Tanya back. He loves to help her in the garden and has dug a hole about 50 cm (18 to 20 inches) deep. He helped her dig beets too. Yuri, our neighbour who is retired and helps us with work around the yard, can work in Lucky's yard with no problem. Lucky ignores him mostly. But if Tanya comes out, suddenly Lucky is all guard dog, barking fiercely and threatening Yuri. Tanya says he is just showing her that he is necessary to have around to protect her. 

She has been working on getting him an EU Pet Passport that indicates his ID chip number and all his most recent vaccinations so he can travel in the EU. The key vaccination is for dog rabies and is the only vaccination needed to come to Canada. All vaccinations must be done by a recognized government veterinarian. 

Our veterinarian has come to our place for most of the shots. But to confirm the rabies vaccine has been effective a blood sample must be taken at least 28 days after the vaccine and sent to the central laboratory in Kyiv. For that, Lucky had to go to the clinic. Tanya was very worried about how he would behave. He is very strong and she was so scared she couldn't handle him if he proved difficult. He had not been in a car nor to the vet clinic since he was well under a year. At that time he was very well behaved.

Today he went to the clinic. Tanya found a willing taxi and Lucky entered when asked but was so frightened he literally shook all the way to the clinic. He was very well behaved in the clinic, got up on the table with no problem and lay down when Tanya told him to. Tanya held his paw and head and talked to him while the vet drew blood. No problems at all. 

On the way home he was fine, looked around, knew the area of course and knew he was going home. Both he and Tanya were stressed out from the trip so when they got home they both lay down for a two hour sleep. Lucky slept like the dead and snored lustily.

Lucky is growing up. Tanya is not worried about him now as she knows he can travel and will be a good dog.

The counter offensive has begun

 Since the end of the War for Kyiv, the Russians have concentrated on taking all of Lugansk and Donetsk Oblasts. They use WWI tactics, massive shelling, followed by frontal charges which are driven back with heavy losses by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). Once there is nothing left to defend the ARU pull back and the deadly game begins again. The Russians have also targeted civilians all over the country. Kharkiv had endured the most destruction since Mariupol as the AFU have been unable to drive the Russians back past the  25 km mark to be out of range of artillery. 

Improved air defense has destroyed some rockets and planes targeting civilian infrastructure and civilians. A number of "unfortunate accident" in Russian Belgorod have destroyed several locations from which rockets were launched against Kharkiv and scared the citizens who are abandoning the city. Last night 5 rockets were fired at Dnipro City and were all destroyed by air defense. 

With the arrival of HIMAR rockets systems the AFU have concentrated on destroying arms dumps, command HQ and concentrations of soldiers when known. Every Ukrainian with a cell phone is a potential observation post. A month or so ago, the AFU stated that they were about to start a counter offensive to retake Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russia immediately stated sending troops and equipment from Donbas to the southern front and moved about 25,000 troops and associated equipment to the west bank of the Dnipro River.

Once they were nicely settled in AFU began destroying the bridges using HIMARS so they could not resupply and are essentially trapped. And as the Russian army weakened itself in the east and northeast, Ukraine began probing counter offensives there, while continuing to defend against Russian attacks in Donbas. 

Day after day the threads read Russia attacks are driven back
and Russians shell these communities as marked

Unfortunate accidents also occurred in Russian occupied Crimea, destroying aircraft, ammunition dumps, command HQ. No smoking signs are now posted I hear. Also cars were backed up 100 miles of tourist and other Russians fleeing Crimea for the mainland.

The counter offensive has begun along the Zaporizhzhia front but mainly on the Kherson front. Russians respond by shelling civilian targets in surrounding communities such as Mykolaiv, Nikopol, and Krivii Rih. Artillery barrels must be changed periodically as they over heat. Ammunition expended cannot be replaced. Pontoon bridges are destroyed by HIMARS. Russians try to resupply using helicopters but dare not land more than two at a time on the Kherson airport or they will attract AFU rockets.

Little information is available from the Ukrainian side for obvious reasons but phone calls from Russian soldiers to their mother's or wives would indicate a fair bit if panic in some places. Reports are that the offensive is going better than hoped and the AFU is penetrating Russian lines in several places and blocking every attempt to resupply across the river. The maps below are a few days old so do not represent the current situation.

Blue indicates areas where AFU is pushing Russians
back towards Tokmok and Melitopol

The Kherson front showing destroyed bridges on the Dnipro River  

I am not a military expert, not even amateur so please feel free to add more information. Also on twitter follow Flash, War Monitor, The Kyiv Independent, Defense of Ukraine, Ukraine Weapons Tracker, Euromaidan Press, and Michael McFaul.

Meeting Grayden

On August 3rd, my grandson Grayden Hingston was born in Edmonton and on August 16th I finally got to meet him. The feeling is hard to explain to someone not a grandparent for the first time. I got to hold him lots, read Green Eggs and Ham to him and sing Willie and Waylon songs to him. He did like Willie and Waylon so I think he is off to a good start.

His brother Tristhanh (15) and sister Matalinh (14) are quite happy to have someone take the pressure off them and sure do love their little brother. The feeling is returned as he likes them to hold him too.

His three Aunties, Bronwyn, Kylee-Anne, and Lynmara, arrived Saturday morning which was the first time the five of us had been together in three years. They took turns holding him which Grayden didn't mind at all. In the afternoon Mishel's family arrived and the house was full of noise, laughter and energy. I had not met any of them before. Grandpa Hai and Grandma Cassie are going to be excellent grandparents, will spoil him rotten and not teach him any bad things.  His Uncle Hoang is so good with him too. His Aunt Chau and Uncle Dz drove up from Calgary. They are full of fun and will be the ones to get him in trouble in years to come. 

We all stuffed ourselves with Vietnamese food while Grayden got passed around like a hot potato and took it all in stride. Noise doesn't bother him. Quiet does. Not used to that. He is growing and no wonder he loves to eat so Mishel is supplementing him with formula. He was 7 lbs 3 oz (3.260 kg) at birth and 9 lbs 2 oz (4.140 kg) at 3 weeks. He has stretched out a couple inches (5 cm) in length too. 

Bus fare to Calgary from Regina, return, is $230 so I will go and see him again in September is possible. 

Grayden at 3 weeks

My first meeting with my grandson

Graeme and Mishel's family

The five of us with the wee boy

Grandpa's Hai and Allen with Graeme and Grayden

Grandma Cassie (also an amazing cook)

My other good boy waiting for me in Ukraine

Ukraine Takes the War to the Russians

 A few days ago, Ukraine destroyed couple of ammunition dumps deep in Kherson Oblast, well over 150 km which surprised everyone as their missiles were not supposed to reach that far. On the 10th, Ukraine "using their own weapons" hit a Russian airbase deep in Crimea,  destroying 8 or 9 fighter/bombers, pilots, ground crew, ammunition and fuel. Russians claim it was a smoking accident, no one was hurt and no planes were destroyed. They are such careless smokers, having sunk their top battleship the same way.

There was still a 100 km lineup at the Kerch bridge yesterday to flee Crimea and the Ukrainian Armed Forces posted the most awesome troll video ever.

Also yesterday there were a number of explosions on a Russian airport in Belarus, mainly taking out S300 and S400 rocket launchers as I understand. And a fire destroyed the wooden barracks in Moscow housing conscripts. No one was hurt. 

Partisans in Mariupol and Melitopol make the night dangerous for Russians and traitors. A couple of officials named by the Russians as in charge of towns or cities have been knifed, shot, or poisoned. 

Russia has been rushing troops and equipment to defend Kherson City. There are supposedly some 25,000 troops on the west side of the Dnipro River. Ukraine has destroyed or damaged the bridges so they are trapped with no retreat and can only resupply by pontoon boat. All the bridges are under Ukrainian fire control. Russians have been launching artillery and rockets at Mykolaiv, Nikopol and Krivii Rih and are threatening an offensive but are having no luck taking the initiative.

Even though Russia prioritized taking Lugansk and Donbas, since taking Lysychansk, in two months they have only gained 10 km mostly in villages around it. By moving troops from the Donbass area they have weakened their forces there enough that they have only one point they are still putting pressure on the AFU, around Pisky which they are destroying with thermobaric weapons. It is hilarious to read day after day that Russia attacked various and sundry communities and after heavy losses. Ukraine is taking losses but far fewer than they were before HIMARS. They have been destroying Russian ammunition dumps and control centres with pinpoint accuracy ever since.

Ukraine is pushing the Russians back, liberating several small villages in the NE and should liberate Izium soon. They are definitely following Sun Tsu, Clausewitz, Wellington and Patton. There is a major counter offensive coming but no one knows when or where, which is how it is done! The armchair generals on Twitter are going crazy.

A Busy Week

 On Wednesday my wife left me and my son and his partner presented me with my first grandchild with my name.

Tanya has gone back to Ukraine for maybe three months. She will find someone she knows to rent the house just for the utilities or she will close it down for the winter. We hope she can bring our German Shepherd back with her but it will be difficult as he is a big dog. She flew into Warsaw and took a bus to L'viv. Three hours at the Polish Immigration and at least three hours at Ukrainian Immigration. She was still there when I talked to her at 3 am my time. She said there were buses and cars from all over Europe lined up at the border filled with Ukrainians going home. From L'viv to home by train but which one?

Grayden Hingston was born in Edmonton about 7 pm Wednesday night, 7 lbs 3 oz 49 cm. Tanya was in Calgary long enough to get the pictures and details. He has two middle names after his grandfathers which is always good politics. He has a sister and brother in early teens and his other grandparents live nearby so they can spoil him regularly. My plan is to teach him to drink beer, swear, and eat pickles. 

Three days old and happy he kept his mother awake all night his first night home

I am cleaning house today and doing laundry as my youngest arrives on Sunday. Haven't seen her for three years. She is in Canada for three weeks so am glad to spend a couple days with her.

Russians Massacre Azov Fighters in Olenivka

 A few days ago the Russians posted a video of the castration and subsequent shooting of a Ukrainian POW. It went viral and drew huge condemnation on Russian from all over the world. They also posted a video of  the head and hands of a Ukrainian POW impaled on a fence.

Yesterday 53 POWs from Mariupol were murdered and 75 injured by the Russians in Olenivka DNR. A new prison was constructed and prisoners moved into it. The guards and other Russians all withdrew from the area. That night a thermobaric bomb they had hidden inside the building exploded and burned to death the prisoners. The Russians fired three salvos of grad rockets to cover the noise of the explosion.

The last holdouts in the siege of Mariupol were ordered to surrender to save their lives. These were the Azov Battalion, the so-called Nazis. The expectation was that they would be traded for Russian POWs. There was no intention to do so. The prisoners were taken to Donbas and have been tortured since their surrender. To return them alive would destroy the Russian story of the Nazi Battalion.

A few days ago Russian "war correspondents" began circulating their "interviews" with these prisoners. They confessed to every horrible crime imaginable all carried out under the direct orders of Zelensky. 

On the morning of July 29th, the story was that the POWs had been destroyed by Ukraine with a HIMAR strike on the orders of Zelensky for telling the truth.

There was no missile strike, no one heard any incoming sound at all. The small amount of damage to the building, burn marks on the building and victims were all indicative of a thermobaric weapon. 

The result of the castration video and the murder of the POWs will mean that surrender is now out of the question for both sides. The no quarter flag has been flown, and it is war to the knife.

Wing of the prison where the explosion took place

Inside view showing how everything was burned

Translation of SBU intercepted phone call