Thoughts on the Russian War Against Ukraine

 Information comes So rapidly, it is hard to keep up and have even a semi-informed opinion.

Steve Schmidt from The Warning wrote this today:

The war in Ukraine is an illegal war. It is a war of criminal aggression by a larger and more powerful nation, Russia, and a smaller nation, Ukraine. The Russian army has committed countless war crimes and acts of brutality against peaceful people as they raped, murdered, tortured, and pilfered. The Russians have emptied their prisons and drafted hundreds of thousands of young men to fight in Putin’s war of conquest against a European nation in the third decade of the 21st century. . .

The Russian army has been bloodied and humiliated by the Ukrainian army, but they have not been defeated. The Russian army is gathering, expanding, and attacking. It is indifferent to human life and suffering. 

The question at hand is this: how can that Russian army be destroyed in Ukraine before it advances into the next country? This is the fundamental question, and the most important issue facing the world right now. Should the battle lines expand beyond Ukraine, and converge with one or two other conflicts, the world could be at the edge of a third world war where nine countries have nuclear weapons. It means the doomsday clock would stand at one second to midnight. 

Allied tactics have been to trickle arms into Ukraine, after the fact, to keep Ukraine from losing, but not cause the Russians to escalate the war drawing in NATO forces. This has worked at great cost to Ukraine. Ukraine has been pleading for better anti-missile and anti-aircraft weapons. The Kh-22 ballistic missile with a 900 kg warhead, which destroyed an apartment block in Dnipro, killing more than 45 people and injuring more than 80, is an old Soviet anti-aircraft carrier missile against which Ukraine has no defense. They have been used before but finally Ukraine will get Patriot missiles capable of knocking them down. 

The big argument is it takes time to train people. Bulltweety. The war is 2 days short of 11 months old. There has been lots of time. Since the beginning and even before the war, AFU soldiers are being trained in combat by Canadians, British, Americans and other allies. Ukrainian pilots are now being trained in flying F16s and America has no objection to allies sending their F16s to Ukraine. Combined with A10 Warthogs, they make a formidable team. But the excuse about Warthogs is that unless you have complete control of the skies, they are slow and vulnerable. 

Russia is afraid to fly their planes into Ukrainian airspace because the get shot down. But Ukraine is not given the means to hit the bases in Russia to destroy their fighters and bombers. Ukraine is developing its own long range drones so the Russians can't blame NATO for that. And apparently they may be getting American missiles that can hit deep in Crimea, 250 miles to 350 miles range, but can't use them to hit inside Russia.

Lucian Truscott IV wrote this in his substack column: 

The U.S. does not literally have boots on the ground in Ukraine, but it’s got pretty much everything else on the ground there, from MRAP mine-resistant armored personnel carriers to 155mm howitzers to Avenger radar-controlled air defense systems to Javelin anti-tank weapons to Stinger shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles to HIMARS rocket systems to Humvees and personal-protection equipment such as helmets, bulletproof vests, boots and winter uniforms. . . 

The CIA and NSA can see everything Russia does in Ukraine from satellites. They know where every Russian battalion group is located, what its unit designation is and most likely the name of the Russian battalion commander. They can see every movement of every Russian tank, armored personnel carrier, and resupply truck, and see what is loaded on every flatbed railroad car headed from Russia into eastern Ukraine.

The Americans share all military transfers to Ukraine and all intelligence about Russia in plain view of Putin, letting him know that they are solidly on side with Ukraine. And they have recently approved 2.5 billion in future aid. Lawrence Freedman in Comments is Freed "Proxies and Puppets" writes 

On Thursday, nine of Ukraine’s more robust supporters, including the UK, announced a raft of new measures with lots of ammunition, training and anti-aircraft guns, as well as 600 Brimstone missiles from the UK, 19 French-made Caesar howitzers from Denmark, and Sweden’s Archer artillery system. . .

 ‘We recognise that equipping Ukraine to push Russia out of its territory is as important as equipping them to defend what they already have. Together we will continue supporting Ukraine to move from resisting to expelling Russian forces from Ukrainian soil. By bringing together Allies and partners, we are ensuring the surge of global military support is as strategic and coordinated as possible. The new level of required combat power is only achieved by combinations of main battle tank squadrons, beneath air and missile defence, operating alongside divisional artillery groups, and further deep precision fires enabling targeting of Russian logistics and command nodes in occupied territory.’

 Aye, there's the rub. Ukraine needs 300 Main Battle Tanks to mount a credible offense while at the same tile Russia is building up for their own offensive assault in spring or sooner. But they can't get them. There are all kinds of Leopard II MBTs available and countries that will give them but they cannot without German permission. Which is consistently refused. Germany, which is the third largest contributor of Military aid to Ukraine behind America and Britain, will not give permission for transfer of Leopard II MBTs. F

Scholtz said other countries have to go first, so Britain is supplying a battalion of their MBTs, Challenger II. Then Scholtz moved the goal posts and said America has to give Abram tanks first. America is not about to send Abrams tanks because as Lucian Truscott IV points out: 

U.S. reluctance to send Abrams tanks to Ukraine stems from a number of reasons. These are the most highly advanced armored vehicles in the world. They are basically an armored interface with the electronic battlefield mounted on tracks:  Everything on board is connected to satellite guidance and intelligence systems with computerized targeting, all defended by complicated high-tech armor and attack-avoidance devices. Training in the combat use of the Abrams takes months, but that’s not the only issue. Everything on the Abrams is in danger of breaking down and the whole apparatus needs constant maintenance, much of which can only be done by specialized civilian technicians

Not going to happen in a hot war zone. Though to be honest I wish Biden would call Sholtz's bluff and send a dozen over even if they aren't put into use.  Further to Ukraine needing MBTs, their military also must be trained in combined operations, (a tactic that integrates armored and infantry units with artillery and air defenses in attacks on the enemy. Combined operations are baked into U.S. tactics and are basic to the training of all soldiers, from privates in the foxholes to colonels and generals who command thousands of combat troops). This training is already happening though Oklahoma is suing to prevent "foreign troops" from being stationed in the state.  

The Kremlin claims that America and NATO are engaging in a proxy war to destroy Russia. Yes, and no. Ukraine is fighting Russian Imperialism on behalf of Europe and the world. If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, Poland, the Baltics, Romania are all next in line. NATO is immediately involved with boots on the ground. 

What is the end game? Allied tactics have avoided an "escalation" involving NATO and have kept Ukraine from losing BUT even though they pay lip service, there is NO strategy for winning. Zelensky laid out five non-negotiable points for peace, increasing them to ten a few months later.  Putin is reinforcing the area in Ukraine he has already taken, hoping for a negotiated settlement that leaves him in control. At the moment there is nothing to negotiate.

If Russia is simply driven back to 1991 Ukrainian borders, with no further action from the EU or NATO, even if Russian assets are used to rebuild Ukraine and sanctions continue, Russia is not beaten and will be back in "ten" years. They have survived Stalin, they have survived WWII. The Russian people and therefor Russia will survive with no lessons learned. 

Ukraine must win and Russia as an imperial power must be destroyed. Now or ten years from now. 

155 mm Howitzer

HIMARS

ATACMS

Leopard II Main Battle Tank

Lucky, Samus, and the Dog Park

 I've not been on my computer much since last Friday. There are almost 200 unread emails in my Inbox, mostly news items of which I shall delete the older half. 

My second daughter, Kylee-Anne and her husband, Ian from Saskatoon were here from Friday night until mid afternoon Sunday and brought their dog Samus. Samus is a gentle giant, Black Lab and Great Dane cross. We were worried how she and Lucky would get along.

When Lucky and I stayed at my friend Ed's, his dog, Prill, kept Lucky in line as it was her house. They got along mostly by ignoring each other. But this is Lucky's house and he is highly protective of Tanya and I so we worried. Needlessly as it turned out. Lucky knows and loves my daughter as she is a true dog whisperer. So he accepted Samus and Ian with no fuss at all. In fact he was overly deferential to Samus who used her size and Lucky's timidness to make herself the top dog so to speak. 

Lucky never had another big dog to play with and when Samus would drop into play stanch, he didn't know how to respond. Not much room to play in our tiny house but in the back yard they learned to play together eventually. And we took them to the big dog park south-west of us off 13th Avenue. It is basically a huge level bare field, with a now-frozen creek along one side. This was Lucky's first experience off leash other than when he escaped the house a few times. 

He had so much fun and behaved himself around larger dogs and people. Ran and ran and circled back to make sure we were coming. He heard someone calling their dog way across the field and was sure it was for him so went charging off until we called him back. 

He loves cats and small dogs. There was a young woman with two small dogs and he was overjoyed. One dog was a 9 week old Golden Lab and the other was a sweet little floof of some kind. He would have spent his whole time with them if we hadn't called him to come with us. Even so he ran back across the field to check on them again. 

We have no vehicle to will have to depend on rides to go to that dog park in future. There is one within walking distance but it is much smaller and not much used on winter. We will use it in spring.

Both Samus and Lucky slept well that night. Lucky was sad to see Kylee-Anne go home but had mixed emotions about Samus. I think he was glad to get his house back and not worry about having his food stolen.

None of the pictures are mine as I forgot my phone when we went to the dog park.

Resolutions and Runkeeper

 New Year's resolutions were made to be ignored so I never made any. 

On the other hand, I have a dog needs walking. As all the Management courses tell you, "What you don't  measure, you can't manage." (Which is true to a point, but any good manager in real life will also tell you, "Not everything that can be measured is important, while things that cannot be measured are sometimes very important." But I digress.)

How far and how long I walk the dog can be measured. For many years I used an app on my phone called Runkeeper. It uses GPS to track where and how long you walked, ran, jogged, depending what you set it to. Also measures change in altitude over distance. 

I walked Lucky to the dog park closest to us a few days ago. He was bored as there were no other dogs there so we started for home. I hate retracing steps so I tried to go a different way and ended up walking south along the edge of three lanes of traffic going north. Most of my shortcuts end up like this. Two hours walking and 4 km measured on Google maps. Next time I'll go back the way I came.

I reinstalled Runkeeper on my phone today and  the three of us walked almost to the Lawson Pool. Tanya loves to swim and will likely walk there herself so she wanted to know how far it was from our house. Took almost an hour, there and back, as Lucky spent a great deal of time sniffing and marking. Do you know how long it takes to walk two blocks with trees every ten meters?

This is some of what Runkeeper displays after a walk:

Friday we will walk to the dog park again. The weather has been so great for walking since Christmas with temps around -10C, no wind and bright sunshine. It is perfect winter weather for outdoor activities. 

Religious and Spiritual Celebrations October to January

 My friend Lynn Minja included this in her annual Christmas letter. It is worth repeating and adding to. The list is in no wise complete and if my readers would be so kind as to contribute, I would be grateful. A number of groups, not just First Nations, for example, observe the Winter Solstice. 

From October to mid-January people of different faiths, worldwide, celebrate specific aspects of their spiritual beliefs. In a multi-cultural province, country, and world, it is imperative that we understand the importance of spirituality individually and collectively and that we respect and honour the spiritual beliefs of individuals and the traditions and faith celebrations of all religions.

October

• Bahais celebrate the births of Bab and of Baha’á ullá and the Day of the Covenant.
• Buddhists celebrate Pavarana And Kathina
• Hindus and Sikhs celebrate Diwali
• Jews celebrate Yom Kippur, Sukkot, and Shemini Atzeret/Simcheat Torah
• Shia Muslims celebrate the birth of the Prophet, Mohammed 

November

• Buddhists celebrate Lhabab Duchen
• Christians celebrate All Saints Day and the first Sunday of Advent.
• Jews celebrate the beginning of Hanukkah
• Sikhs celebrate the birth of Guru Nanak Dev Ji (Jayanti)

December

• All Faiths celebrate Kwanzaa
• Buddhists celebrate Rohatsu/Bodhi Day
• Christians complete celebrating Advent and celebrate the birth of Christ (Christmas Day) 
• Jews celebrate Shabbat and complete celebrating Hanukkah
• First Nations celebrate the Winter Solstice

January

• Buddhists celebrate the Lunar New Year/ Tet Nguyen Dan
• Christians celebrate the Feast of Epiphany
• Eastern Orthodox Christians celebrate the birth of Christ
• Hindus celebrate Sankranti (actually celebrated every month)

Regardless of your spiritual beliefs, we wish you health, happiness, peace and love.

Note: Doug Cuthand's column in the Star Phoenix explains the significance of the Winter Solstice to the First Nations people of Canada

Country Gospel Duets - a break from Christmas Music

 If you need a break from Christmas Music, give a listen to these country gospel duets. I stumbled across Sarah Roberts and Tyler Williams singing On Heaven's Bright Shore and loved the harmony so much I went looking for others that I did not know.

Tyler Williams was born with cerebral palsy and is blind. He is also an accomplished singer and musician playing piano and also Doc Watson style guitar. You can find him on YouTube.

 

Kenny and Amanda Smith are a husband and wife team who met at a bluegrass festival in the late 90s and have been performing and recording together for over two decades. Kenny is an accomplished guitar player. A Heart That will Never Break Again and Outside the Gate are two of my favourites.

Joey and Rory Feek were a rising country music couple until her untimely death from cancer at 40 years. They were married in 2002 and performed and recorded from 2008 to 2016. 

Lucky's Big Adventure or Home at Last

 The three of us left Zhovti Vody on November 11th and arrived in Regina November 23rd. We moved into a small house with a fenced backyard on November 28th and this is the longest we were in any one place from the 11th on. Lucky had a microchip and all his shots so had a valid EU Pet Passport. He was too big to go as baggage so would have to go to Canada as cargo. 

The small 8 passenger bus from Zhovti Vody to Warsaw took 26 hours. There were frequent stops and I took Lucky out for a quick walk and pee break as often as possible. We bought him one seat but he could not stretch out until about half way when he figured he could lie on the floor. 

In Warsaw a taxi took us to our Hostel that accepted pets. We were on the second floor and rode the elevator. Lucky learned quickly. We dragged him on the first time and after that he went on willingly but was still puzzled by the doors which opened and closed on their own. We were there three days. We took Lucky out to walk a few times each day and he behaved reasonably well. On side streets he barked at people and cars, along busy streets he was quiet. 

Then we took the train from Warsaw to Belin and then to Frankfurt. At the station in Warsaw the steps did not reach to platform so we literally picked up Lucky and threw him onto the train as there was no way he would cross that gap. He was half fare but had to stay on the floor. In Berlin everyone in our car got off so we did too but it was Berlin Obf not Berlin Hbf so we grabbed a taxi and got to the right station in lots of time. On the way we saw the statue of Frederick the Great and the Brandenburg Gate. 

Our train direct to Frankfurt was canceled so we had to take the milk run which took an hour longer. No problem getting Lucky on this train. When we got to Frankfurt we found a minivan taxi to take us to our Airbnb in Kelkheim, about 45 minutes west of the city in the mountains. A lovely location and I would recommend the bnb Cosy apartment in Kelkheim hosted by Britta Jacobus. Great for hiking in the mountains and very lovely in summer

We could not find a crate big enough for Lucky anywhere but C4C who would be our shipping agent out of Frankfurt had one and delivered it to us at the bnb. We had 6 days to train him to the crate. We tried toys, treats and patience. He would go almost all the way into the crate but not his back legs. Finally we did what always worked with him. Shoved him in and shut the door. No problem. a little later he stole a pillow off the bed and Tanya yelled at him. He went into the crate by himself figuring it was a safe place. We shut the door and left him two  hours, with treats. The next night he was there five hours and the last night all night. 

On the 21st, we left the bnb, took Lucky and the crate to C4C animal cargo building at the Frankfurt airport. The same taxi that took us to the bnb took us to the airport. Tanya had a "certain amount of stress" as they wheeled Lucky away, knowing we would not see him for two and a half days. We grabbed a good hotel room for the night and had a good supper, figuring we'd earned it. We were at the airport early next morning for our Air Canada flight home. We think Lucky flew on the same plane but do not know for sure. A company called Sevenoaks Animal Logistics collected Lucky in Calgary, oversaw the paperwork to get him into Canada, took him for a long walk and put him on Cargo Jet to Regina. 

We got to Regina at 12:30 am Nov 23rd and collected Lucky from Jet Cargo at about 6:00 am. He apparently had a great time the entire trip. He was overjoyed to see us of course. But he was just as overjoyed to see us after we shut him in the kitchen at the bnb while we took his crate and our luggage to the street. My friend Ed picked us up and Lucky and I stayed at his place as we could not take him to our apartment. Tanya stayed at the apartment. We had hired movers but there was still lots to do. The movers came Monday morning at 9 and by 12:30 we were in our little house to stay! 

Lucky came over at about 7 pm and checked and approved everything. So here we are, home at last. Flat broke but safe in Canada. Zhovti Vody has had power outages but no rockets or bombs. We have a young couple staying at our home and our cats have taken to them which makes us happy. 

Lucky's EU Pet Passport

Lucky on the bus to Warsaw

Lucky in our little hostel room in Warsaw

The Kelkheim area is wet and foggy in fall

Lucky at the bnb

The kennel 120 cm by 89 cm by 80 cm

His favourite toys

Going for a midnight walk in Calgary

Lucky got along with Ed's dog Prill sort of

Lucky in his new home

Watching out the back window for anything to bark at

His new bed in his new home

Claiming the armchair

Getting ready to go

 Tanya had most of the house stuff packed away, leaving out enough for the family who will be renting it. When I got here my concern was organizing Lucky's flight from Frankfurt to Calgary by cargo. I found a pet freight forwarder and I hope they have a crate big enough for him. I Googled the size I need and nothing came up in Canada or USA that was even close.

Lucky weighs 40 kg, measures 110 cm nose to tail head, 80 cm to the tops of his ears standing and 90 cm sitting. front leg to base of chest is 40 cm, and 30 cm across the shoulders. According to the fitting chart, he needs a crate 50 inches long and 40 inches high. I haven't heard back from the pet transfer company yet.

We have rented a small house with a good sized fenced in yard in Regina so Lucky will become a house dog like everyone else's dogs. He will love that. I will take him for walks and maybe to a dog park if he behaves himself. 

We took him to the vets to weigh him. His second only car ride and he behaved well. At home he barks at everything and everyone but in town he wanted to be friends with everyone in the clinic and every small dog. The small dogs felt otherwise.

Tanya goes on Monday to jump the bureaucratic hoops to register the family as our renters. We take so much for granted in Canada as most of these hoops are already looked after and we don't think about them. 

Once that is done there is not much holding us here except a few last minute details, I expect. There is always something.  Some days I wish we had never left and somedays I am glad we did. It will be a hard winter in Ukraine though fortunately the weather has been very mild to date.

We have a suitcase half packed and Tigritsa and Bonya both think it is perfect for sleeping on. First come claims it and the other sleeps on the floor beside it hoping to steal the spot. The family that will stay here will look after the cats as we cannot take them with us.

So they remember our cats' names

Lucky relative to a volleyball

Grayden is three months old

Looking forward to seeing Baby Yoda, I am