A few things came together to inspire today’s blog. First, Americans
on Xitter constantly complaining about gas prices, second, a new toy called Perplexity
https://www.perplexity.ai/?utm_source=onboardingemail1
which not only answers questions but provides sources for the answers and
finally, an article in The Economist describing how Americans are killing each other
with heavy ‘light trucks’ which include SUVs.
First I will deal with gas prices, driving distances, and
fuel efficiency in Canada and USA. All of this came from asking Perplexity the
right questions. I didn’t bother with sources. If you want them, play with the app.
And my thanks to an Iowa corn farmer from DC for the tip off.
The average gasoline price in Canada as of August 26, 2024,
is approximately CAD 1.79 per liter (USD $1.32 per liter or USD $4.99 per
gallon). This includes crude oil costs, refining costs, wholesale and
retail markups, and federal and provincial taxes, including the federal carbon
tax. This is slightly higher than the world average of USD 1.24 per liter.
The current national average gas price in the United States
is $3.32 (CAD $4.48) per gallon (CAD $1.19 per liter) as of September 5,
2024. This is down from $3.44 in mid-August, but higher than the 6-year
national average of $3.05 per gallon since 2018
In 2023, the average gas price in USA was $3.52 ($4.76,
$1.26/l) per gallon, down from $3.95 ($5.34, $141/l) in 2022. The highest
weekly national average since 2018 was $4.99 ($6.74, $1.78/l) per gallon in
June 2022 and the lowest weekly national average since 2018 was $1.84 ($2.49, $0.66/l))
per gallon in April 2020 during the pandemic.
The average Canadian driver typically travels around 15,200
kilometers (9400 miles) per year, ranging from Newfoundland and Labrador:
18,100 km (11,200 miles), Prairies 15,300 km (9,500 miles) to BC 13,100 (8,100
miles).
The average American drives approximately 13,500 miles (21,700
km) per year or 37 miles (60 km) per day, with drivers aged 35-54 averaging
15,291 miles (24,600 km) per year. Wyoming has the highest average of 24,000
miles (38,600 km) per year while DC has the lowest with only 6,700 (10,800 km).
American men average 16,550 miles (26,650 km) per year and American women average
10,142 miles (16,300 km) annually.
The average gasoline mileage for new vehicles in America in
2022 is currently 26 mpg (11.1 l/100 km), reflecting ongoing improvements
in fuel efficiency despite challenges in meeting stricter fuel economy
standards. According to recent data, the average fuel consumption for vehicles
in Canada is approximately 8.9 L/100 km (20.9 mpg).
Canadian fuel economy is roughly 25% better than USA. The
reason for that becomes apparent in these articles from The Economist.
America’s
Love Affair With Big Cars is Killing Them
When two vehicles collide, it is usually the heavier one
that prevails. When a passenger car crashes with a pickup truck or
sport-utility vehicle (SUV), the driver of the car is likely to die around
three times as often.
Between 1990 and 2005 the market share of SUVs in America
grew from 6% to 26%, pushing up the weight of an average new car from 3,400lb
to nearly 4,100lb.
For every deadly crash avoided by an SUV or pickup
truck, there were an additional 4.3 deaths among other drivers, pedestrians and
cyclists. Studies have estimated that when a car crashes with an SUV or
pickup, rather than another car, the driver’s fatality rate increased by 31%. When
two cars crash, a 1,000lb increase in the weight of one vehicle raised the
fatality rate in the other by 47%.
The Economist compiled ten years’ worth of crash
data from across 14 states, including millions of crashes between 2013 and
2023. These data yielded roughly 10m crashes. After dropping observations with
missing data, we were left with around 7.5m two-vehicle crashes involving more
than 15m cars.
Their data show that heavier vehicles are safer for their
occupants than lighter ones. The fatality rate is roughly
seven times higher when colliding with a heavy pickup truck than with a compact
car. As the weight of your car increases, the risk of killing others increases
dramatically.
The heaviest 1% of vehicles in their dataset—those weighing
around 6,800lb—suffer 4.1 “own-car deaths” per 10,000 crashes, on average but were
responsible for 37 “partner-car deaths” per 10,000 crashes. Cars in the middle
of the sample weighing 3,500lb, suffer around 6.6 “own-car deaths” per 10,000
crashes, but were responsible for 5.7 “partner-car deaths” per 10,000 crashes,
on average. The lightest 1% of vehicles weighing just 2,300lb, had 15.8 “own-car
deaths” per 10,000 crashes. and 2.6 “partner-car deaths” per 10,000 crashes.
Vehicles in the top 10% of the sample—those weighing at
least 5,000lb—are involved in roughly 26 deaths per 10,000 crashes, on average,
including 5.9 in their own car and 20.2 in partner vehicles. For vehicles in
the next-heaviest 10% of the sample—those weighing between 4,500lb and
5,000lb—the equivalent figures are 5.4 and 10.3 deaths per 10,000 crashes.
In 2023 vehicles weighing more than 5,000lb accounted
for a whopping 31% of new cars, up from 22% five years earlier. “As you see the
vehicle fleet around you getting heavier, then you want to protect yourself
rationally by buying a bigger and heavier car.” a Cold War scenario. Such
rational individual decisions have led to a suboptimal outcome for society as a
whole, as people are rationally concerned about their own safety.
Regulators are ill-equipped to fix the problem. America’s
tax system subsidises heavier vehicles by setting more lenient fuel-efficiency
standards for light trucks (including SUVs) and allowing bosses who purchase
heavy-duty vehicles for business purposes to deduct part of the cost from their
taxable income. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA),
America’s top auto-safety agency only takes account of the safety of the
occupants of the vehicle in question, not that of other drivers.
The shift towards electric
power is likely to increase their weight further, as battery-powered
vehicles tend to be heavier than their internal-combustion equivalents. (Note:
as they are virtually friction free they can travel at very high speeds unless
speed controls are built into their computer systems. My son has seen them on the
Edmonton-Calgary highway traveling at super speeds)
Why
American cars are so big
In 1975, in response to the 1973 oil crisis, the federal government
imposed fuel-economy standards on carmakers. To ease the burden on small
businesses that relied on big vehicles, the government exempted “light trucks”,
any vehicle that could be used off road and weighed less than 8,500lb (3855kg).
That meant SUVs—typically among the biggest and least-efficient cars—were
swept into the category and avoided the new fuel standards.
Because making light trucks held to lower environmental
standards was more profitable, automakers marketed big models, including SUVs,
enthusiastically. They portrayed them as quintessentially American, embodying
freedom, strength and adventurousness. By 2002 light trucks, including
SUVs, made up a bigger share of light-duty vehicle sales than cars. By the
1990s gasoline had become cheaper in America than in other rich countries—so
the cost of running a big car did not deter buyers. Such models are convenient
for suburban living, and consumers see them as safe.
And EVs are developing the same weight
problem as conventional cars. The EPA does not
regulate EVs’ indirect emissions, even though heavier models require more
electricity to charge, and need bigger batteries, which contain more of the
scarce metals used to make those batteries. In 2022 60% of electric-vehicle
sales in America were SUVs.
Conclusion
Nothing is likely to change in the near or medium term, though
the EPA is tightening the definition of light trucks. Running on a platform of
higher gas prices, slower speeds and smaller vehicles is a recipe for political
suicide. Canada’s Carbon Tax is about as popular as a skunk at a picnic.
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