The War to Come

The "Truce" continues here in Ukraine. Both sides, fully realizing that the fat lady has not yet sung are using the lull to regroup, rearm and prepare for further combat when hostilities resume. Russian troops and equipment build on the Kherson border of occupied Crimea and to the east of Mariupol.  Donetsk airport, still held by the Ukraine Army, is under daily attack by the terrorists backed by Russian military. The importance of Donetsk airport to the breakaway region and to Ukraine is described in this article which compares it to the Grozny airport held by the Chechens during their war with Russia in the 90's.

In the meantime, the propaganda war continues with Russia seemingly winning that one.  There have been enough documented war crimes committed by the Russian side to haul the entire Kremlin to the Hague so Russia is determined to create a few they can blame on the Ukrainians.

The terrorists claim to have discovered three mass graves in areas previously controlled by the Ukrainian army. They contain something like 2, 4 and 9 bodies, likely of Russian fighters killed in action and initial information is that they were created AFTER the Terrorists regained the territory.  Russian TV is reporting 400 bodies, showing signs of torture and execution and using pictures of rows of bodies from the Malaysian airplane which was shot down over Russian occupied territory.

Russia is calling for creation of a forensic investigative commission to determine the truth, so they can have some Ukrainian war crimes to prosecute.  This is similar to the one Stalin used to determine that the Germans has massacred the 22,000 Polish officers at Katyn.  They stayed with that lie until Poland regained independence in 1989 when they were forced to admit the truth.

Mychailo Wynnyckyj, of the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, provides 10 reasons why he forecasts a full scale overt invasion of Ukraine by Russia before the Parliamentary election scheduled for October 26.

1) Putin needs to establish a land link between the Russian Federation and Crimea before the onset of winter

2) Occupying territory in Ukraine without the use of air power is now impossible.

3) Once air power is used, all pretense as to the supposed non-involvement of Russia in military action in Ukraine (as if anyone still believed the Kremlin’s official line) will be lost.

4) Once Putin makes the decision to overtly engage Ukraine’s army and volunteer battalions, limiting his own use of air power makes no tactical sense.

5) During the past few days, Putin has expressly denied his intent to disrupt the election in Ukraine on Oct 26. Whenever Putin has expressed positive feelings towards Ukraine publicly during the past months, Ukrainians (with good reason) become intensely nervous…

6) Opinion polls show that the two pro-Russian political forces running in the current election (Serhiy Tihipko’s “Strong Ukraine” and the “Opposition Bloc” headed by former energy minister Yuriy Boyko) may not gain enough support to cross the 5% barrier required to be represented among the 225 MP’s elected by proportional representation.

7) According to Ukraine’s constitution, if a state of war is declared in the country, all elections are cancelled. and all existing MP’s (including, in the current case, those who largely support Putin’s anti-EU/anti-NATO policy for Ukraine) remain in office.

8) The longer Putin delays his inevitable invasion, the better armed, trained and organized the Ukrainian forces will become.

9) The war with ISIS/ISIL in the Middle East has begun, and US forces are fully engaged; China is preoccupied by protests in Hong Kong; the US public is preoccupied with ebola, and the US elite is in the final stages of the mid-term election cycle; the European Council Presidency and the EU Foreign Policy Commissioner posts are both in transition; NATO has a brand new Secretary General (as of Oct 1).

10) Protests in Russia against the war in Ukraine have already begun, and will only intensify during the coming months, unless a crackdown in Russia (under the pretext of war) occurs.

I sincerely hope I’m wrong in this prediction.

The full article is here.