 |
| Election Results (source National Post) |
Canada
held its 43rd Federal election on October 21st, 2019. The
results are a Liberal minority government with the New Democrats in a position
of power. The Liberals were shut out of Alberta and Saskatchewan but did well east of Manitoba
For the second time in Canadian history, a government will be
formed that does not have the highest popular vote. The Liberals have 33.1% to
the Conservatives 34.4%.
In 2015 Justin Trudeau campaigned on changing the
electoral system to some form of proportional representation (PR) rather than
first past the post or FPP. PR is back in the limelight again, as the actual seats won
by the parties have little relationship to their share of the popular vote.
I have strongly opposed
PR because of my experience with Ukraine’s electoral system and wonderful
examples like Italy. However, a Facebook friend, Daren
Schemmer, of Simon Fraser University (SFU)[1]
who has been patient with me for four years, suggested I check out the system
used by Ireland and New Zealand. I did and now I’m a believer.[2]
I examined seats won and seats that would have been won on Canadian
wide PR or on Province Wide PR. Twelve seats are required to be a recognized
political party in Canada, so I arbitrarily did not count parties with less
than 3.5% of the vote*. To give the territories (YT, NT, NU) some choice, I also lumped the
three together for a final scenario**.
Party Representation by
Various Electoral Systems
|
% Votes
|
Actual
|
Country*
|
Provincial*
|
Provincial**
|
|
|
Liberal
|
33.1%
|
157
|
115
|
116
|
115
|
|
Conservative
|
34.4%
|
121
|
119
|
118
|
119
|
|
New Democratic
|
15.9%
|
24
|
55
|
56
|
56
|
|
Bloc Quebecois
|
7.7%
|
32
|
27
|
26
|
26
|
|
Green
|
6.5%
|
3
|
23
|
22
|
22
|
|
People's Party
|
1.7%
|
||||
|
Independent/other
|
0.4%
|
1
|
|||
|
Other
|
99.7%
|
338
|
338
|
338
|
338
|
Technically, the Conservatives, under provincial
proportional representation could have formed a minority government, IF any of
the other parties would agree to any of their legislation. I cannot imagine a Conservative
budget that would not lose a vote of non-confidence.
Alberta has another legitimate grip about the number of
seats relative to population. Both Alberta and BC are underrepresented in the House
of Commons based on population. So is Ontario. The rules around composition
of the House of Commons are quite complex and involve a great deal of
horse-trading, however they have been changed frequently and should be so again,
even for FPP.
Provincial Representation in the House of Commons
|
Name
|
2019 Population
|
2019
Constituencies
|
Pop’n per
Constituency
|
Par with Quebec
|
|
Ontario
|
14,446,515
|
121
|
119,393
|
134
|
|
Quebec
|
8,433,301
|
78
|
108,119
|
78
|
|
British Columbia
|
5,020,302
|
42
|
119,531
|
46
|
|
Alberta
|
4,345,737
|
34
|
127,816
|
40
|
|
Manitoba
|
1,360,396
|
14
|
97,171
|
13
|
|
Saskatchewan
|
1,168,423
|
14
|
83,459
|
11
|
|
Nova Scotia
|
965,382
|
10
|
96,538
|
9
|
|
New Brunswick
|
772,094
|
11
|
70,190
|
7
|
|
Newfoundland
|
523,790
|
7
|
74,827
|
5
|
|
Prince Edward Is.
|
154,748
|
4
|
38,687
|
1
|
|
Northwest Territory
|
44,598
|
1
|
44,598
|
1
|
|
Yukon
|
40,369
|
1
|
40,369
|
1
|
|
Nunavut
|
38,787
|
1
|
38,787
|
1
|
|
338
|
350
|
Provincial PR allows for regional parties such as the BQ but
does not allow for non-affiliated or independents. Jody Wilson-Raybould would
not have a seat under such a scenario. Fringe parties such as the PPC, are kept
to a minimum, though no one knows how the votes would go under a proportional system.
However, a system like Ireland with three seats to a constituency
does allow independents. That would look after the three territories. It provides
a certain amount of leeway for everyone’s choice to be recognized and allows
for some feeling of local representation as well. Apparently, five seats per
constituency prevent any form of Gerrymandering.
Voting is done by Single Transferable Vote, where candidates
are ranked by choice of the voter. Where this is done in a single constituency
it is known as the Instant Run-off Vote. Australia uses this system. Figuring
out how to count STV
ballots appears extremely complicated. If there is no simple way that can
be explained in less than a minute, it is a non-starter in my books and maybe
why it didn’t go over in BC.
Whether the Liberals can be forced to live up to their 2015
promise now that they have to depend on parties that favour it to stay in
power remains to be seen.
[1]
Good thing Simon Fraser’s middle name wasn’t Thomas or the university would be
known as STFU.
[2]
You now have an earworm, you say? You’re welcome.
