The following article is reprinted from Grainews with the author's permission
Les Henry: Weather, climate and actual data
A look at changes in the 30-year average annual temperatures in Swift
Current
|
Stock photo from Getty Images |
In recent
months there has been much press anxiety about the “Climate Crisis.” The general
gist is that planet Earth is warming to the point where we will be scorching to
death. Crops will be unable to survive the heat and drought. Climate Change
(warming) is the top priority in the minds of many, but not all. The arguments
are in two basic camps.
The “Global Warmers” have
mathematical models that claim to predict that we are soon over the cliff and
all doomed. The solution is to quickly kill coal and petroleum and we will all
be saved.
The
“Deniers” believe that the climate may be changing, but forces of nature are in
charge and mankind have little to do with it.
To deny that climate is
changing is to deny that we live on planet Earth. The planet we share is about
1.4 billion years old and climate has gone through many dramatic changes in that
time. In more “recent” times of about one million years, we have seen glaciers
come and go several times from almost all of the area we farm in Western Canada
and as far south as northeast Kansas.
Weather
and climate
One thing that all camps agree on
is that weather is the day-to-day, month-to-month, and year-to-year conditions
that we experience. Climate is the 30-year average. Therefore, if we are
talking about climate change, we must trace how the 30-year average is
changing.
Climate
data for Swift Current, Sask.
As a scientist, it is data that
carries the day, not opinion. For the past decade, I have been attempting to
assemble historic records long enough to allow temperature to be studied as
climate, not weather. Accessible data from Environment Canada is very limited.
Thanks to a long line of
dedicated scientists at the Swift Current Agricultural Research Station we now
have a complete monthly record of temperature and precipitation from 1886 to
present. The first scientists must have assembled existing information because
the Swift Current Experimental Farm began in 1920. The data from 1886 on is
accessible on the current Environment Canada website.
The three groups of graphs below
show how the climate has changed. The 1915 data is the average of data from
1886 to 1915. The 2018 data is the average of 1989 to 2018 inclusive. The Y
axis has a 5 C temperature range for all months except January which required 6
C. That allows easy visual comparison of the temperature range of different
months.
Readers can study annual average
temperature and temperatures for individual months and draw your own
conclusions. Here are some observations I have made:
1. Winter
months: The range of 30-year average
temperature is large for January, February, and March. Those months show warming
from 1915 to 1940, cooling from 1940-1980 and warming of several degrees from
about 1980 to 2000. The latest episode of warming ended about the turn of the
century. There is some indication of cooling in recent 30-year records but the
time is too short to be sure.
The big range in January to March
will drive the annual average as most other months have a much lower range of
temperature.
2. April, May, June, and August: In
April, May, June, and August, 30-year averages are little different now than
they were in 1915.
3. July: July is
actually cooling.
4. September:
September has a sharp warming period near the end of the record. (see at
bottom)
5.
October, November, and December: October, November, and December
show no clear long-term trend. December was warmer in 1886 to 1915 than the
most recent 30-year average.
With
this data and a few observations, I leave my readers to draw their own
conclusions about what this all mean in terms of our ability to grow crops in a
time of Climate Change.
Bad news and good news
Whenever I share
this data with Climate Crisis folks they dismiss it as only one record and say
it should be based on the whole Earth. But no one will say what thermometers
they average to come up with the global temperature.
The bad news is
that our current Environment Canada records make it very difficult to do
similar analysis for many other sites.
The good news is I
have recently learned how to access the huge U.S. long-term weather records to
prepare graphs to compare with the Swift Current data.
Fargo, North
Dakota also has data back to 1886. The parallels between the Swift Current and
Fargo data are remarkable. We have data for Dodge City, Kansas, right back to
the days of Wyatt Earp (1875). Readers long enough in the tooth will remember
the Wyatt Earp black-and-white TV programs of the 1960s-70s. Young folk can
Google Wyatt Earp, Dodge City to get the story.
In coming issues,
I’ll report on many other sites in the Great Plains of the U.S.
Columnist
J.L.(Les)
Henry is a former professor and extension specialist at the University of
Saskatchewan. He farms at Dundurn, Sask. He recently finished a second printing
of “Henry’s Handbook of Soil and Water,” a book that mixes the basics and
practical aspects of soil, fertilizer, and farming. Les will cover the shipping
and GST for “Grainews” readers. Simply send a cheque for $50 to Henry
Perspectives, 143 Tucker Cres., Saskatoon, Sask., S7H 3H7, and he will dispatch
a signed book.
This article below
from The Western Producer has some interesting charts of temperature changes in the Saskatoon Saskatchewan area: