Somebody tell Putin to FOAD

 Started this on Thursday, had no energy nor ambition as we have had no sunshine for over 6 weeks. Also more stuff was coming down the pike and all I wanted to write was obscenities. 

Russia has been piling troops and tanks along the Ukrainian border since last spring and has been adding to them to the point that it looks like war. All Putin needs now is an excuse. Even if he has to dress Russian prisoners as Ukrainian soldiers and stage his own. USA, EU, and NATO have recognized the risk. Since Ukraine is not a NATO member, they cannot commit troops but they have warned Russia that they will come down much harder with economic sanctions than they have, including kicking Russia off SWIFT which hamstrings their ability to trade. Russia has developed its own version of SWIFT for just such an occasion but only 16 countries have signed onto it, including Belarus just recently.

Putin has now drafted two legal documents, one to be signed by NATO and one by USA, that essentially pulls NATO back to pre 1997 borders and leaves the former Warsaw Pact countries of Central and Eastern Europe (as well as Central Asia) defenseless and at the mercy of Russia, i.e. Yalta 2.0. At Yalta 1.0, Stalin promised Churchill and Roosevelt that these countries would remain independent and free to chose their own governments and future. We know have that worked out. America, NATO, and Ukraine responded that ain't going to happen and if Russia escalated its invasion of Ukraine (they invaded in 2014) NATO would move more troops to the eastern borders of it member states. 

Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security adviser said, while the Russians had a list of security concerns, so did the United States and its European allies, and that Washington was willing to negotiate on that basis. . . “We’ve had a dialogue with Russia on European security issues for the last 20 years,” “We had it with the Soviet Union for decades before that.” That process “has sometimes produced progress, sometimes produced deadlock,” and noted that the United States planned “to put on the table our concern with Russian activities that we believe harm our interests and values.” “It’s very difficult to see agreements getting consummated, if we’re continuing to see an escalatory cycle.” Essentially, there are things that are non-starters but there are things we can talk about. 

Reminds me of an ambassador who defined the difference between a Lady and a Diplomat. If a Lady says no, she means maybe, if she says maybe she means yes and if she says yes, she is no Lady. If a Diplomat says yes, he means maybe, if he says maybe he means no and if he says no, he is no Diplomat.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said:  “We are clear that any dialogue with Russia must take into account NATO’s concerns about Russia’s actions, be based on key principles and documents on European security, and take place in consultation with NATO’s European partners such as Ukraine,. . We reaffirm our support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. NATO’s relations with Ukraine are a matter only for Ukraine and 30 NATO allies,”

“We will always respond in a determined way to any deterioration of our security environment, including by strengthening our collective defense posture as necessary. NATO will take all necessary measures to ensure the security and defense of all NATO Allies. Any further aggression against Ukraine would have massive consequences and would carry a high price… We support the right of all countries to decide their future and foreign policy free from outside interference. NATO’s relationship with Ukraine is a matter only for Ukraine and the 30 NATO Allies. We firmly reject any attempts to divide Allied security.”

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Oleh Nikolenko said, “It is the reversal of the escalation and the ending of Russia’s international armed conflict that is the best guarantee of security on the continent,” “The same position is shared by the North Atlantic Alliance itself, which is confirmed, in particular, in its statement of 16 December 2021. The same applies to the exclusive sovereign right of Ukraine to independently determine the development of relations with foreign states at the bilateral level, including in the field of military cooperation,” 

“We urge Russia… to return immediately and unconditionally to the constructive agenda and to start implementing the Minsk Agreements and the Normandy Leaders’ Agreements now, in particular the agreed conclusions of the 2019 Normandy Quarter summit. It is first of all strict adherence to the ceasefire, further draw away of forces, continuation of the demining process, implementation of the political aspects of the Agreed Conclusions of the Paris Summit, opening and ensuring the proper functioning of new checkpoints on the contact line, holding the next stages of mutual release of POWs and exchange of their lists.”

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov warned the U.S. and NATO against ignoring its recent proposal for a security agreement, in which Moscow seeks to roll back many of the security advances NATO has made in Eastern Europe, while tacitly dangling the threat of further military incursion into Ukraine. Urging that it be considered “with the utmost seriousness,” Ryabkov also pointed out that the draft should not be considered a menu of options from which some could be selected, and others rejected. He stressed that the Kremlin’s draft is a “package” that must be dealt with in its entirety. Putin’s proposal comes with a Jan. 14 deadline can be considered an ultimatum.

Michael Anthony McFaul is an American academic and diplomat who served as the United States Ambassador to Russia from 2012 to 2014. He is @McFaul on Twitter. He posted the following (thanks, Ostap)

Putin is not threatened by NATO expansion. Mighty Russia is not threatened by NATO expansion. NATO has never and will never attack Russia. Putin has reinvented this so-called threat to justify his latest coercive diplomacy... and maybe escalated military intervention in Ukraine.

Now that Putin has published his ideas for a new European security agreement, let me propose some additional articles to the draft agreement.

Article 1. Russia agrees to withdraw its forces from Moldova and restore full sovereignty to this European country.

Article 2. Russia agrees to withdraw its forces from Georgia, renounce recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent countries and restore the full sovereignty of Georgia.

Article 3. Russia agrees to withdraw its forces from Ukraine, return Crimea to Ukraine, stop supporting separatist forces in Ukraine, and restore the full sovereignty of this European country.

Article 4. Russia's agrees to withdraw Iskandar missiles from Kaliningrad.

Article 5. Recognizing the importance of defending both individual and state security, Russia agrees to stop assassination operations against anyone residing Europe, be it the UK, Germany, or Russia.

Article 6. Russia reaffirms its commitment to agreements already signed including the Helsinki Final Act, the Paris Charter, the 1994 Budapest Memorandum.

I have more to add. But that's enough to get the negotiations rolling.

I like how he thinks. Wonder if anyone will take notice. I guess we'll have a Merry Christmas but whether we have a Happy New Year remains to be seen.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-worst-nightmare-is-ukrainian-independence-not-nato-expansion

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/17/world/europe/russia-nato-security-deal.html

http://euromaidanpress.com/2021/12/17/ending-russias-international-armed-conflict-best-guarantee-of-security-ukraine-responds-to-demands-of-nato-non-expansion-russia-delivered-to-the-usa

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-politician-aleksei-zhuravlyov-threatens-to-unleash-axe-killers-on-us-congressman-ruben-gallego