Tuesday, March 7, 2023

Some thoughts on day 377 of Russia's War on Ukraine

 People ask me how and when do I think this will end. I do not know. As Michael McFaul, former US ambassador in Moscow said, “I don’t know what Putin will do if he starts to lose in Donbas or Crimea. And so don’t you. But we all should recognize that he is not suicidal, he is not crazy, and that he has options.” Based on that premise, I do not think he will use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. 

The war continues, day after day with no let up. Maps show little or no change in territory as the war resembles in many ways WWI trench warfare.

The daily tally of Russian losses

Location of active fighting

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 6, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

After 220 days of continuous fighting, Russia is making small incremental gains in the Bakhmut area but at the cost of 10s of thousands of soldiers and hundreds of pieces of hardware. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/06/bakhmut-wagner-mercenaries-russia-ukraine  

They attack day after day hurling  hundreds of soldier into determined Ukrainian fire, while Russian artillery takes its toll of Ukrainian military. Fall back defensive positions on higher ground are ready if or when Ukrainians make an orderly withdrawal. However at the moment there is no intent to retreat  President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — Official website of the President of Ukraine

In the south east, Russia continues to attack Vuhledar, using much the same tactics as at Bakhmut, sending waves of soldiers and large numbers of tanks etc. up the same road time after time and having them destroyed. www.kyivpost.com/post/13859  

The following is lifted from the Tweets of NOEL (@NOELreports) who reports on daily on conflict zones, especially #Ukraine. These were posted a few minutes ago on Twitter.

Complain, complain, complain. How on earth after one year of lying are there still video's popping up of Russians that are genuinely surprised about what is happening to them. How surprising. Mobiks from Belgorod complain that they are treated like cattle, were lied to regarding their duties (instead of public order tasks they are thrown in battle as meat), got taken away all their documents and didn't even meet their commanders.

General James Hecker, Commander of the US Air Force in Europe, confirmed that the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is already using JDAM-ER guided bombs. Ukraine's stockpile of these bombs, which can hit targets up to 45 miles away thanks to their pop-out wing kits, is currently relatively small. However, they could already present real problems for Russia's military.

Poland will deliver the remaining 10 Leopard 2A4 battle tanks to Ukraine this week after handing over its first four units on Feb. 24, according to the Polish Minister of National Defense Marius Blaszczak. Poland is setting up a maintenance hub for Leopard tanks

Ukraine needs aircraft capable of becoming an element of air defense. That is why the F-16 fighter is a priority compared to the outdated A-10 Thunderbolt attack aircraft, Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov said in an interview with Liga.

130 Ukrainian military men returned from Russian captivity under the exchange procedure. Among them are 87 defenders of Mariupol, as well as those captured during the defense of Bakhmut and Soledar. Among those released were four female servicemen.

#Bakhmut city - No attacks by Russian troops were observed on the (north) east side. This makes sense as the AFU has now entrenched itself behind the natural barrier of the river. To the west, the AFU counterattacked at Khromove and pushed Russians back at least 1 km.

Front lines around Bakhmut

Serhii Haidai reported on Luhansk which ties in with our report from yesterday. The fighting on the Russian side has slowed down and there are reports that Russian troops are being repositioned to Bakhmut. Around Chervonopopivka, the AFU regained ground.

End of today's report. NOELreports is your source for daily, fast and reliable news on conflict zones (buymeacoffee.com)

Putin retreats deeper into his labyrinth This article from WaPo is worth reading. It also quotes a good article from the Financial Times which is heavily paywalled if you have used your limit of freebies.

Yesterday, a Ukrainian prisoner knew he was going to be killed. His last words were Слава Україні (Glory to Ukraine) and he was gunned down. There is a 23 second video of the murder and I watched it. I will not post a link. If you want to find it, it is up to you.

There will be a Ukrainian spring counter offensive. Where and when are subjects of conjecture but of course remain secret and plans may change several times in response to shifts in Russian tactics.

So how will it end? If Russia is simply driven back to 1991 borders, sanctions continued and Russian assets used to rebuild Ukraine, there will be no peace. Russia's friends, China, India, Iran, will help Russia get round the sanctions. Their economy will adapt even to a full wartime basis. Russia will harass Ukraine from within the shelters of its border and threaten nuclear response if anyone dares to cross it. Everything within 25 km of the border will be subject to incessant shelling and large centres to rockets and missiles launched from the Black Sea or Russia itself. Russia will rearm and the war will start again in less than 10 years.

Russia must be destroyed in such a way that it can never threaten the peace of Ukraine and Europe again. Ukraine must be allowed to join NATO, along with Finland and Sweden.


  1. Yes, it's a scorched earth war of attrition and a crime against humanity.

  2. This just makes me so sad for all the pain and loss and waste. It's hard to believe that a so-called 'civilization' can't do better than this.

    1. Mostly civilization has improved the technology of death and destruction


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