A Use for the Empty White "Aid" Trucks

Ukraine has still received no documents regarding the contents of the mostly empty white trucks of "humanitarian aid" parked by the Ukrainian border.  A commenter said that the real purpose of the trucks was to remove all equipment from a Luhansk factory and take it back to Russia.  The factory produces systems for the Russian military and is already packed to go.

If you read John J. Mearsheimer's article, “Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault,” in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs, you can rightly be excused for wondering when that august publication became a mouthpiece for the Kremlin's useful idiots.  Best read this rebuttal from Anders Aslund in Peterson Institute for International Economics

A great deal has been written about why Russia has mounted an undeclared war on Ukraine. Certainly Putin wants to maintain his hold on power and protect his $40 billions and the $billions of his cronies.  He wants to be the Tsar who rebuilt the Russian Empire.  But it is not JUST LilliPutin.  Russians by and large, have never accepted Ukraine as a separate nation nor Ukrainians as a separate people. Russians tend to see political movements as conspiracy.  If there is an uprising over unfair elections (2004) or a mafia run state (2014) it MUST be the fault of the CIA.  The notion that people might actually rise up of their own accord in Kyiv or Moscow is not in their world view.

So as this writer put it, the conflict is between opposing world views,

(The inheritance of Kyivian) Rus is the domination of individualistic values. They demand the right to participate in making the decisions that influence their lives. Therefore, they build collective forms of government organization: Viche-Maidan, the Rada, a parliamentary republic.

(The inheritance of the Mongolian) Horde is domination of collectivist values. They do not participate in making societal decisions, but entrust themselves and accept the will of the higher ‘deity,’ which expresses the interests of this collective. Therefore, they build authoritarian forms of government organization: the Khan, the Tzar, the Leader. Collectivism is the base communism, socialism, fascism are built on.

Fighting continues in eastern Ukraine as the ATO attempts to wrest territory back from the recently reinforced terrorists.  The Ukrainian military is also under attack from artillery and rockets fired from inside the Russian border which makes it very dangerous within 40 km of the border. Terrorists are also deliberately destroying infrastructure - roads, bridges, power stations, well over and above losses normal to war.  The terrorists do not have to live there and are tasked with destabilizing the economy of the country.

In other news, Moscow has closed three McDonalds.  And some people have no sense of humour:

Russia Wants Bulgarians to Stop Vandalizing Soviet Monuments

Russian Climbers Could Face Jail For Ukraine Flag on Stalinist Building

No respite for Ukrainian Army

The following is from Ukraine Liveblog Day 183: Ukraine Fights to Retake Ilovaisk.

Hromadske TV reports that 150 pieces of Russian military hardware, including tanks, and 1200 troops with Russian uniforms (but lacking chevrons) have broken through to Lugansk today.

Dmitry Tymchuk reports that Unfortunately, the fact is confirmed that today, a convoy of military vehicles has broken through to Lugansk to aid the local fighters. Some of it had come from Russia earlier, and some from RF territory today into Donbass. According to our information, several dozen vehicles have come into the outskirts of Lugansk, of which up to 40 are heavy armored vehicles. Some of this convoy has entered the city.

Dmitry Tymchuk also reported that During a withdrawal of refugees from the settlements of Khryashchuvate and Novosvitlivka near Luhansk, insurgents struck the convoy with a massive attack of mortars and “Grads.” The convoy was moving under white flags, but this did not save it from almost total destruction. Dozens of civilians, many [of them] children were killed. 

Terrorists from the LPR claim that the convoy of refugees from Lugansk shelled yesterday was not done by them. I. Polotnitsky, one of the leaders of the fighters, has made this statement. This statement could possibly confuse the outside observer who could regrettably surmise that the ATO forces could commit this monstrous act by shelling the convoy by mistake. If it were not for one thing. The leader of the terrorists immediately began swearing that the armaments had not been transferred to the fighters from Russia, that supposedly "all the military vehicles are trophies and have been taken in battles." ...The lie about the arms proves the lie about shelling the convoy as well.  But the leader of the fighters is so tangled up in lies that he doesn't even turn on his brains when he sticks his lying on the public.

Earlier today there were reports that Russian-backed separatist artillery opened heavy barrages of outgoing fire from the center of Donetsk, Ukraine's fifth largest city. There is an interesting theory being circulated at the moment. Earlier, there were a series of reports, all posted at the same time and coming from multiple sources, which suggested that it was separatists who were firing artillery rockets, probably Grads, out of the center of Donetsk. But artillery rounds and rockets have also fallen in the city. But we have not seen signs that the Ukrainian military has moved on Donetsk today, and Reuters saw no evidence of Ukrainian soldiers in the area. Are the separatists shelling the city themselves to blame the crisis on the Ukrainian military?

Ukraine has banned 14 Russian television channels accusing them of spreading war propaganda.  While the Ukrainian crackdown on Russian media outlets has been widely condemned, it is also important to remember the context. When Russian troops began to take over Crimea, one of the first things they did was arrest Ukrainian journalists and raid television and radio broadcast centers. The signals of independent Ukrainian news outlets were then replaced with those of Russian state media.

EuroMaidanPress reports a new tactic on the part of the terrorists who are preparing military bases "strengthening the mining belt: Stakhanov, Alchevsk, Kramatorsk, Sniznhe, Torez, Krasnyi Luch. This is an attempt to create supporting bases in the event that Russia invades.”

In other news Paul Goble's blog has an item regarding the revival of Soviet style anti-Semitism. Russia is becoming increasingly Nationalistic, almost virulently so. An instructor at the Russian foreign ministry’s training academy told participants at a government-sponsored youth camp that “Zionism is a movement for the establishment of the world rule of Jewish bankers,” that it “finances pagans to destroy Orthodoxy,” and that it has so “Judaicized” Catholicism that “almost nothing remains” of that faith. ... What makes these words so disturbing is that they remind us of the ugly Soviet-style anti-Semitism and anti-Zionism. This may be a result of Vladimir Putin’s increasingly authoritarian and imperialist rhetoric and the Russian government’s media outlets ever more virulent attacks on ethnic Ukrainians and others. 

There were a great many warnings posted about the potential for Putin's independence referendums and promotion of federalism to backfire. There are demands beginning in Siberia that Moscow respect the Russian Federation Constitution and allow true federalism in other parts of the country.  The authorities came down hard, blocking a march in Novosibirsk and arresting the leaders on trumped up charges.  The notion however has spread to several other parts of Russia according to Paul Goble's blog.  Ain't Karma a sweetheart?  Stay tuned for more excitement on the home front.

Empty trucks, full APCs, fleeing Russian terrorists and

The Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) is closing the circle in Luhansk and is reported fighting their way into the city.  Donetsk is also supposed to be almost cut off but the battle is going back and forth.  The new head of the DPR terrorists says they are getting reinforcements. Above link and here and here

According to him, the reserves showed up at the most crucial moment. They were made up of 1200 personnel, who had been trained for four months in the Russian Federation. In addition to the troops, the reinforcements, according to Zakharchenko, included 30 tanks and 120 armoured vehicles.

The APCs and other heavy Russian military equipment, including tanks is reportedly moving along highways from the Russian border.
Which is probably agreeable to the Kremlin because the escort has gotten a head-start on the aid anyway. Yesterday, nine Russian tanks wererecorded rolling along the H21 highway in Donetsk, deep inside separatist-held Ukraine. Moreover, helicopters, military vehicles (some of them marked with the emblem of "peacekeeping forces"), self-propelled guns, the 9K22 Tunguska anti-aircraft system, and what looks to be radar components for more advanced surface-to-air weapons (such as the Buk), were all identified by journalists and plenty of Russian observers moving alongside or above the aid convoy while it rolled from Moscow to the border. The Estonian newspaper Postimees also published photographs of Russian BMD-2s lining up along the M4 highway, about 6 miles from the Izvarino border crossing. This is the infantry fighting vehicle used to great effect by the Russian Airborne forces (VDV) -- camouflaged as the now-infamous "little green men" -- in the March seizure of Crimea.

Ukraine claims to have destroyed a number of them but this has not been confirmed yet by USA and of course Russia claims they don't exist.

As to the "Aid" convoy, the NY Times says some of the 280 trucks are nearly empty. Russia has "promised" that the "Aid" convoy will not be used for "direct" invasion.  However they are certainly setting the stage for something, whether attacks by terrorists which they can blame on Ukraine or as they have been doing already making statements that all is agreed to, then saying that Ukraine is breaking the agreements.  All this will sell well to the folks in Russia.

If you want a map to follow the locations etc of the conflict, this one is certainly big enough. Details will change from day to day but the place names will help orient those of you who are map inclined.
http://www.kyivpost.com/media/images/2014/08/16/p18vffvbit1ol81or21n5k4nr2t54/original.jpg

A conversation between a Russian Terrorist in Donetsk and his handler in Crimea is worth reading as he pleads for a hole to escape back across the border into Russia and wonders what the fighting is all about as no one seems to wnat to be liberated.
http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/08/15/who-the-hell-did-we-liberate-here-word-of-mouth-from-dnr-terrorist/

In other news, Crimea's only market appears to be Russia.

In April-May of 2014 the volume of goods supplied from Crimea to EU countries constituted $113,4 thousand, meanwhile in 2013 this number constituted about $171 million, so the volume of export last year is on average 251 times bigger. This was stated to newspaper “Week mirror. Ukraine” by scientific consultant with Razumkov Center Volodymyr Sidenko citing Crimea Statistics data.

And Closer

According to the most recent reports I have seen the "Aid" convoy is being inspected by Ukrainian border guards on the Russian side.  Some of the commenters noted that some of the trucks seemed to be relatively empty, though I have found no English language news reports of this.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2014/08/14/eyeball-to-eyeball-russian-humanitarian-convoy-approached-unguarded-border-with-ukrainian-tanks-moving-to-meet-them/

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/15/us-ukraine-crisis-convoy-idUSKBN0GF0D020140815

The exact purpose of the "Aid" convey is yet to be revealed. The cottage industry of pundits has many hypotheses, of course.  I am reminded of the guy who crossed the border every day pushing a wheelbarrow loaded with sand.  The sand was searched thoroughly every day but nothing was found.  Finally they gave up and "We know you are smuggling something and if we leave you alone, will you tell us what it is".  "Simple.  Wheelbarrows."

Two Guardian reporters who accompanied the convoy stated they saw a number (20+) of armed personnel carriers with Russian insignia on them cross into Ukraine Thursday night, and Ukrainian news reports that the Ukrainian army clashed with them and destroyed some. Russia of course denies this, for what that is worth. Russian military equipment seems to cross the border quite freely and frequently.
http://www.voanews.com/content/ukraine-russia-military-convoy/2414222.html 

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/kiev-says-its-forces-clashed-with-russian-troops-inside-ukraine-border/505198.html

In spite of the claim by Putin et al that Russia is not involved and has no control of the situation Lavrov said he spoke to the terrorists and they would allow the "Aid" convoy to proceed.  No doubt.  Although the journalist suggests that it will come under fire from the terrorists anyway, as they are already shelling the corridor to prevent civilians from leaving Luhansk. (Use Google Translate)
http://espreso.tv/news/2014/08/13/humanitarnyy_konvoy_veze_prykhovani_systemy_navedennya_vohnyu_hotuyetsya_masshtabna_provokaciya___dzherela

One thing sure, Putin is not going to back off.  However, on  lighter note, we do have allies.  A friend of Andrei's just got back from Turkey.  At the resort, Ukrainians and Russians got into a discussion and eventually into a brawl.  Polish and German guests came in on the Ukraine side. The Turkish staff stayed out of it but were definitely sympathetic to Ukraine.

You may have also heard, Putin has banned all food imports from any countries which have applied sanctions against Russia. Since Russia imports some 30% of its food, there are fears that this presages a return to Soviet bread lines.

Articles worth reading:

Hot Issue – Lies, Damned Lies and Russian Disinformation

http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=42745&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=6ccbe7697870188378d5960d23bb0f3a#.U-6XPcWSySq

Ukraine's Oligarchs are still calling the shots

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/08/14/ukraines_oligarchs_are_still_calling_the_shots_0

What Canadians really think about Harper, Obama and Putin

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/what-canadians-really-think-about-harper-obama-and-putin/article20076917/

War seems ever closer

The last post on this blog was June 6.  Tanya and I went to Canada and reading the depressing news from Ukraine did not seem a good way to spend one's holidays.  Tanya has returned home.  I am stuck in Canada until Sept 8th.  I lost/misplaced my Permanent Residency document so must stay out 90 days and return as a visitor when I can get a replacement.  I said to Tanya that I was so sorry I was so stupid.  She said she was sorry too.

The ATO (anti-terrorist operation) in eastern Ukraine continues and the Ukrainian military is slowly getting the best of it, recovering territory formerly held the the terrorists and slowly encircling Donetsk city.

The accidental shooting down of the Malaysian airliner by the pro-Russian terrorists on July 17 was a criminal act, the more so because the intended target MAY have been a Russian airliner filled with tourists.  It would have fallen on Ukrainian controlled territory and been blamed on the ATO, giving the Russian military the excuse they needed to invade, which they were apparently set to do July 18, to "keep the peace".

Killing your own people to score political and military points is not unknown. The FSB blew up Moscow apartment buildings to provide an excuse to start the second Chechen war that brought Putin to power. They were caught in the act of setting charges to blow up another. (There is some suggestion that other nations may also be guilty of allowing military or terrorist actions which proved advantageous in starting "desireable" wars.)

With his proxy warriors facing defeat, Putin must act.  Plan B seems to be humanitarian aid. They already tried to run a "humanitarian aid" convoy heavily guarded by Russian troops across the line by were stopped by some frantic diplomatic activity on the part of Proroshenko and others. No a convoy of white painted military trucks filled with "humanitarian aid" has left Moscow enroute to Ukraine.

Russia is telling its people that the convoy has the agreement of Ukraine and the Red Cross.  The Red Cross says they were never consulted and have no idea what is in the trucks.  Ukraine says the Russian trucks are welcome to offload their cargo on the Russian side of the border and reload it onto Red Cross trucks.

The Russian side does not have its story straight as the Emergency Measures people who are supposed to be in charge of the convoy disclaim all knowledge of it too.  If this ploy succeeds, Homer may well have material for two new epic poems.  For full details, see below:

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/controversial-russian-humanitarian-aid-convoy-stops-on-its-way-to-ukraine-360505.html

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/08/12/russia_ukraine_humanitarian_aid_convoy_putin_trojan_horse_red_cross

Fankful Friday

1. Apparently yesterday was NOT Wednesday.  So I guess I can be thankful that Tanya has not arranged for Social Services to send someone do do an appraisal.

2. Work on the house is progressing but every finished job seems to start another. The concrete walk along the north side of the house is finished.  It is not so much a walk as a way to drain water away from the foundation as weeping tile is unknown.  The cement floor is poured in what was the dogs' room and will be finished tomorrow.

The new gates on the dogs yard are more or less finished; they need paint on some of the welded areas and proper closures on the big gates.  Vladik, the welder, put the latch on the small gate to open up instead of down so that the dogs can't open it, though I wouldn't put it past Volk to figure out how to lift the handle.  He is now rebuilding the metal doors on the garage and we will reinsulate them to help keep our house warmer.

The roofing arrived tonight and is stacked carefully.  The sheets are 5 meters long and 1.5 wide.  Plain brown but will look quite nice.

3. We have adequate moisture and now are getting heat.  30+C yesterday and today.  Plants are jumping.  Many more of Tanya's flowers are blooming and her garden is doing well.  Sveta will be busy when we are away canning and freezing.

Fresh dill for the freezer

Neighbours' gardens beside the river/marsh

4. The dogs never cease to surprise me by not acting according to expectations.  They get a walk in the morning then spend the day tied up under the trees in Babushka's yard so they are outside and out of the way.  Today Bobik managed to unsnap his leash from his collar and simply stayed under his tree until I came along and snapped him up again.  Volk pulled his collar strap through the buckle (he needs a new collar) today also and took off for the river for a swim.  Then instead of making me chase him, he came home and ran up to me all happy to have his collar put back on.  Must be the heat affected both of them.

5. We are pretty much packed and ready to go.  We take the express train to Kyiv tomorrow evening and catch a Sunday morning 6:00 am plane, arriving in Calgary at 1:30 pm.  (I only wish the flight was actually 7.5 hours, rather than 15.5).  We are in Canada for 7 weeks.  It has been a long time since we have had a chance to visit with people so this is it.

Google autofill: I am thankful every hour of every day for Tanya.

Ukraine - War and Propaganda

The war between the Ukrainian Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) and the Russian terrorists continues and has moved uptown so to speak.

No one (except maybe the Kremlin) are pretending there are no Russians in eastern Ukraine.  There are estimated to be some 4500 experienced Russian fighters in Donetsk and Luhansk.  They are led by Russians.  The self proclaimed whatever of the self proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic is a Russian propaganda specialist from Moscow.  These guys are stepping up the pressure on the local citizens as well

Finally Ukraine is going to lock down the border, 3 months too late.  I read somewhere the reason they hadn't so far was that it was too profitable for too many Ukrainian Deputies smuggling stuff including arms to and from Russia. give you an idea of what we are up against.

The Vostok Battalion has been recreated though most likely unofficially and well armed.  It is about 80% Russian nationalists of which a good percentage are Chechens with a lot of experience in combating terrorism with terrorism.  A few days ago, the Vostok Battalion took over the Admin Building in Donetsk and turfed the ragtag band of local losers who were pretending to govern.  It is no longer a local fight at all, though likely 20% of the fighters are still locals, with 10% fighting for money and 10% revolutionary dreamers.  There is a good interview HERE with the commander of the Volunteer Donbas Battalion which is part of the Ukrainian National Guard.

A couple of bases in Luhansk have fallen to the terrorists who have been attacking several hundred at a time.  They like to take shelter in hospitals, schools and residential areas and not let civilians leave.  Human shields hamper the activities of the ATO, obviously. And  civilian deaths are worth a fortune in propaganda value to Russia.  Russia paints the ATO as Nazi terrorists wantonly slaughtering peaceful unarmed civilian protesters.

Here are three articles that give you an idea of how peaceful these terrorists are:
ONE, TWO, THREE.  Attacking Christians of several denominations, shutting down all freedom of the press and refusing to allow refugees to leave.  A couple more: FOUR and FIVE , the Chechens and kidnapping. And here is a new one.  $1000 USD per adult and $500 per child to be allowed to leave Kramatorsk.  Do you suppose the idiots in eastern Ukraine are having second thoughts about this Russia, Russia, Russia thing?  Not likely as there were not many of them to start with but propaganda and street thugs go a long way.

Russian propaganda is embarrassing to everyone but Russians, I guess. THIS link is in German but the pictures posted are in English.  They have been stealing pictures and video from all over the world and presenting it as though it were in Ukraine.  Why do people believe this stuff?  Well, remember there are people who believe everything they see and hear on FOX News or from Alex Jones, and if that is all you are allowed and are bombarded with it day and night...

If there are any military readers of this blog, take a look at these two links regarding an explosion in Luhansk which killed a number of civilians.  The Russians are wetting themselves because it "proves" ATO are deliberately killing civilians, others are less certain that it was not a false flag operation.  I don't have a clue about either explanation from these videos.
http://euromaidanpr.com/2014/06/03/an-analysis-of-events-in-lugansk/ 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJUIkwe6PF4&feature=youtu.be