Friday, August 29, 2014

Novorossiya again

Putin is losing his plausible deniability cover.  He can still lie through his teeth as he did in Minsk earlier this week but even the Russian people are starting to learn the truth. It is coming home to them in coffins (code: Cargo 200).  The white trucks of the "AID" convoy took home not only arms manufacturing machinery but also the bodies of Russian soldiers killed fighting in eastern Ukraine.

The secret military funerals in Moscow or Pskov cannot be kept hidden for ever though the families are threatened to keep them silent and the Russian Soldiers' Mothers Committee has just been declared a foreign agency.  The wife of a dead soldier was phoned by journalists.  the woman who answered said her husband was standing beside her and he spoke to them on the phone, yet his funeral was held the day before and his name and date of death were on a wooden cross.  Journalists managed to get a picture before they were driven off by thugs.  Later the name was removed from the cross.

But perhaps he no longer cares to hide the casualties.  If he is getting ready for a major war he needs to get people used to the idea that their husbands and sons are now cannon fodder. During the first and second Chechen war there were officially 10,000 Russian military casualties.  Since the Kremlin consistantly lies about casualties, possibly double that?

The large convoy of Russian equipment and troops that crossed the border and are headed for Mariupol constitute an open invasion and war, though no one officially calls it that as it would require action. The question is where are they going to stop.  Luhansk and Donetsk together call themselves Novorossiya, however when Putin used the term first he was referring to a much larger area, based on historical conquests by Catherine the Great in the mid-late 18th century.
So when he used the term again, praising the Russian-led terrorists (and Russian military) of Luhansk and Donetsk for their "major successes", which vision of Novorossiya was he thinking of? His current infested oblasts? A land bridge to Crimea?  The whole kit and kaboodle?

According to Paul Goble's blog, the Moscow Military Review Voyennoye Obozreniye, an online Moscow journal directed at the Russian military and military analysts, has published a list of seven targets Russian forces are likely to attack in the course of what it describes as “the probable future of the war for Novorossiya.”

Whether the Russian military could invade and HOLD even a portion of the area with the troops available is a debate that is ongoing though most think it is far too few.  Partisan warfare is something Ukrainians know all about and more fanatical groups like Right Sector would come into their own, following in teh footsteps of the OUN-UPA.

Major sources of articles continue to be
Kyiv Post site links to some international stories and also sends a daily email with more complete links to stories in the international press


  1. Putin has it all figured out. He knows that as long as he does everything in small steps with lots of misdirection, the West can claim plausible deniability and continue to pretend nothing's going on. Then when it's fait accompli, they'll all express shock and outrage. "How could this happen?!?" "Oh, well, it's too late now..."

    1. Yes, the West, too, needs plausible deniability so they do not have to call it an invasion and actually do something. Poland and the Baltics are rightfully frightened but I think they are safe as they are already in EU and NATO.
      Ukraine is on its own.


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