Friday, February 18, 2022

Schrodinger's War

Pulling the petals off a daisy (she loves me; she loves me not) would be about as useful as trying to sort any usefulness from the many pundits prognosticating on the likelihood of war with Russia. 

I have shared to Facebook a few positive spins simply to reassure people at home. I am not so reassured any more. Last count was 170,000 to 190,000 troops including National Guard surrounding us on four sides, looking for an excuse to invade.

There has been a huge increase in shelling of towns and villages, including a kindergarten, from the Russian side along the Donbas front , in a village, as the Ukrainians are under orders not to fire back and escalate the situation. Of course the Russians blame the Ukrainians. 

Today a Russian appointed leader, Denis Pushilin, the head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic of Donbas, have ordered the evacuation of civilians, especially women and children, into neighbouring Russia out of fear of Ukrainian  military attacks, stating that the country is headed for war. 

This is 1.5 to 2 million people. Residents there are angry at the forced evacuation saying nothing is happening and everything is staged. Does this include pictures of lineups at gas pumps, I wonder? Putin reacted to the situation in the Donbass. Acting head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations urgently flies to the Rostov region. On behalf of the President, he will create conditions for the accommodation of refugees. Everyone arriving in the Rostov region from the Donbass will be given 10,000 rubles each.

That is one convoy I would avoid like the plague. Have you seen pictures of the Highway of Death in Iraq after the first Iraqi war? The Russians will shell it and blame the Ukrainians. Then they have their war. 

A scenario discussed on Ukrainian Twitter: buses with residents of Luhansk and Donetsk regions, who have been ordered to evacuate to Russia (and many of whom hold Russian passports), may be hit by Russian artillery and an attack would be blamed on Ukraine as a pretext for an invasion.

A car bomb exploded under the car of Major General Denis Sinenkov, chief of the DPR People's Militia Directorate. He was not in the car. Surprise, surprise, surprise. Reporters were immediately (instantaneously?) at the scene claiming terrorist bomb. Of course.

The FSB and GRU have compiled detailed list of people to be assassinated or jailed when they attack and as they take over territory. This will include dissidents from Russia and Belarus, Ukrainian politicians, anyone deemed in opposition or who could potentially lead opposition. (A list like that could run into many thousands. When Suharto overthrew Sukarno in Indonesia in 1967, he had a list of thousands of people to assassinate, handily supplied by the CIA of course). 

The ability to mount partisan resistance will depend n people's willingness to die and on the level of counter insurgency measures taken. How many Lidice's will people suffer before giving in. Western Ukraine had a taste of it from 1945 to 1955 when the Red Army and KGB put down the partisans fighting for Ukrainian independence. Thousands killed and deported. If Russia attacks, there is nothing to gain by playing nice inside Ukraine's borders.

I have two bottles of expensive whisky that Tanya bought me that I am going to start drinking. I'm not leaving them for the Russian Philistines.




20 comments:

  1. "Schrodinger's War" is the perfect analogy for the current situation. I'm hoping for the best for you. Good plan to start drinking that expensive whisky.

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    1. I stole it from Mark Galeotti who does In Moscow's Shadow podcast. https://inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/ I figured it should have won the internet that day

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  2. As Debra She Who Seeks points up, "Shrodinger's War along with your first paragraph, encapsulates my take on what is going on.Putin does appear to not care about the repercussions should he invade. Or it is another moment of him pushing it to see if the USA and NATO will finally back down. Sadly for him, Ukraine, and the World, I think Joe and NATO seem to have settled on just how much they will take of his bullshit.

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    1. You may be right that Putin thinks he has nothing more to lose by invading. Given that he has no compunction about using nuclear weapons if NATO so much as says boo, it is an int3resting standoff. Will he put his foot across the line into the Baltics? If he does, then what?

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  3. Are you safe if there is an invasion?
    the Ol'Buzzard

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    1. Good question. Depends on where the fighting is and if it will reach us or bypass us. WE think so at the moment but Krivii Rih is 100 km south of us and is a major mining and steel city. We have a Uranium mine but no processing. Ore is shipped out by rail to be made into yellow cake at Kamianske (formerly Dniprodzerzhinske) which is near Dnipro City. That is a more likely target. We'll keep our heads down at any rate.

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  4. I could on imagine the feeling of the Ukrainian people. The only thing close to a war for me was the attack on twin towers. All though it was clearly on east coast and I am on the west coast.
    One thing I wonder about Putin. Does he want Russia be more like in days of the communism (Stalin) or the Czar days (Catherine the Great)
    Coffee is on and stay safe

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    1. That is a good question. I would describe his ambition as to be Tsar Vladimir using Stalinist methods to maintain power. There isno desire to return to a socialist economy.

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  5. fuck fuck fuck fuckity fuck fuck fuck

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    1. Hahaha Jackiesue. A good summary of the situation

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  6. AS crazy as the world is right now - stay safe.

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  7. I'm hoping you have an exit strategy...? One that can be implemented in a hurry?

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    1. We have a plan and have our documents ready. Besides fleeing on foot in the dead of winter is a tradition in Ukraine that goes back centuries

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    2. That might be funnier if there was no chance it would actually happen.

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    3. And has happened/is happening now, in Donbas. Not to so called evacuees to Rostov (staged) but finally leaving for Ukraine controlled areas. because they have had enough.

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  8. I do hope that you and your family, friends and neighbours stay safe, even if you must flee! And don't leave so much as a drop of that expensive whiskey for those invading mother*!%#&+$....!!!

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    1. Thank you. We are still here this morning. I am working on it...

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  9. I'd need more than Two good bottles of Whiskey my Friend to steady my nerves, please work on getting out, tho' I'm sure you are since this is not going to end well.

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    1. We are organized to hunker down but have our go-bags packed just in case. Bulgaria, Romania or Turkey are our closest safe countries.

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