Schrodinger's War

Pulling the petals off a daisy (she loves me; she loves me not) would be about as useful as trying to sort any usefulness from the many pundits prognosticating on the likelihood of war with Russia. 

I have shared to Facebook a few positive spins simply to reassure people at home. I am not so reassured any more. Last count was 170,000 to 190,000 troops including National Guard surrounding us on four sides, looking for an excuse to invade.

There has been a huge increase in shelling of towns and villages, including a kindergarten, from the Russian side along the Donbas front , in a village, as the Ukrainians are under orders not to fire back and escalate the situation. Of course the Russians blame the Ukrainians. 

Today a Russian appointed leader, Denis Pushilin, the head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic of Donbas, have ordered the evacuation of civilians, especially women and children, into neighbouring Russia out of fear of Ukrainian  military attacks, stating that the country is headed for war. 

This is 1.5 to 2 million people. Residents there are angry at the forced evacuation saying nothing is happening and everything is staged. Does this include pictures of lineups at gas pumps, I wonder? Putin reacted to the situation in the Donbass. Acting head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations urgently flies to the Rostov region. On behalf of the President, he will create conditions for the accommodation of refugees. Everyone arriving in the Rostov region from the Donbass will be given 10,000 rubles each.

That is one convoy I would avoid like the plague. Have you seen pictures of the Highway of Death in Iraq after the first Iraqi war? The Russians will shell it and blame the Ukrainians. Then they have their war. 

A scenario discussed on Ukrainian Twitter: buses with residents of Luhansk and Donetsk regions, who have been ordered to evacuate to Russia (and many of whom hold Russian passports), may be hit by Russian artillery and an attack would be blamed on Ukraine as a pretext for an invasion.

A car bomb exploded under the car of Major General Denis Sinenkov, chief of the DPR People's Militia Directorate. He was not in the car. Surprise, surprise, surprise. Reporters were immediately (instantaneously?) at the scene claiming terrorist bomb. Of course.

The FSB and GRU have compiled detailed list of people to be assassinated or jailed when they attack and as they take over territory. This will include dissidents from Russia and Belarus, Ukrainian politicians, anyone deemed in opposition or who could potentially lead opposition. (A list like that could run into many thousands. When Suharto overthrew Sukarno in Indonesia in 1967, he had a list of thousands of people to assassinate, handily supplied by the CIA of course). 

The ability to mount partisan resistance will depend n people's willingness to die and on the level of counter insurgency measures taken. How many Lidice's will people suffer before giving in. Western Ukraine had a taste of it from 1945 to 1955 when the Red Army and KGB put down the partisans fighting for Ukrainian independence. Thousands killed and deported. If Russia attacks, there is nothing to gain by playing nice inside Ukraine's borders.

I have two bottles of expensive whisky that Tanya bought me that I am going to start drinking. I'm not leaving them for the Russian Philistines.