Catching up on the War in Ukraine

 

This took all day to put together. Hard to know what is accurate or just rumor. Sources are different and so information varies. MSM is useless. They are farther behind than Twitter and insist on the both sides equivalent BS. This is as current and accurate as I can make it but by the time I post it, something will have changed. I have tried to include maps where possible but some are in Ukrainian. Google maps works well though spellings may differ.

Russia is losing on the battlefield but has turned to tactics to make Europe cold and Ukraine dark. Shutting off gas completely and bombing any and all electrical plants in Ukraine. They are using cruise missiles launched from the black sea or from bombers over the Caspian Sea as well as shorter range rockets and barrel artillery when within range. Yesterday Eight (six?) Russian cruise missiles fired from a Tu-95 bomber hit a hydroelectric facility in Krivii Rih, leaving the city without water and causing the Inhulets River to overflow. It has risen 5 meters since the dam was breached. https://twitter.com/i/status/1570109515651227648 The city has been partially evacuated. 

Russia continues to send cruise missiles into Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro city, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, Rivna and other cities to destroy infrastructure and kill or injure civilians. Tanya said that a couple days ago there were missiles going over head all night, all day and the next night. Air defense shot one down so close that our house shook. Cats and dog not impressed.

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest in the world, has been under Russian control since the first days of the war. Russians have been shelling Nikopol across the Dnipro river and the community of Enerhodar, where workers at the plant live, from the ZNPP. They have also been shelling the plant with mortars, knocking out the power lines around the plant and blaming the Ukrainians.

All 6 reactors are now completely shut down. Three external power sources have been reconnected to supply electricity to the cooling pumps. ZNPP is NOT another Chernobyl waiting to happen. Totally different technology and well-fortified against bombs or Missiles. Should an accident happen, the amount of radiation escaping would increase cancer risks over the years but not the kind of deadly levels that Chernobyl created.

Ukraine says nothing changed after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) visited the ZNPP. IAEA left two people behind to monitor the situation. However IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said very recently that talks are underway to establish a protection zone around the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. At the same time, Ukrainian Intelligence said that Russia was planning more shelling of the NPP. Danger Zone: How Russia is risking nuclear disaster at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (info-res.org)

Map showing percentages of Oblasts occupied by the Russians

Russian routs have made Russia the largest supplier of war munitions and equipment to AFU next the USA. Ukraine now has ample shells for its 152 mm Warsaw pact howitzers and 400 workable tanks. Surrendering Russian soldiers are poorly dressed, poorly equipped and poorly fed. Ukraine will treat them under Geneva convention rules and that should encourage more to surrender. Russians are even using 60-year-old T64 tanks, they are so short of equipment. (Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces are using a few Maxim machine guns from WWI. Once in place they still work well and are effective).

In liberated territory, locals are quick to identify collaborators to the police. The SBU continue to root out spies acting on behalf of Russia. In occupied areas partisans look after collaborators their own way. AFU is mopping up isolated pockets of Russian soldiers in liberated areas. And about 4% to 6% of Kharkiv oblast is still not under Ukrainian control, almost all of it east of the Oksil River. Russian military have stiffened their resolve and Ukrainians are still fighting to push towards Lysychansk and Serevodonetsk.

As communities are liberated by the AFU, forensic investigators move in, to document war crimes. These communities have been under Russian control for as long as 6 months, compared to those near Kyiv where they are still uncovering victims. So far findings have been just as horrific including a torture chamber in Balaklia where a prisoner had written the Lord’s Prayer on a wall.

On the Donetsk front, Russians continue to attack Bakhmut and continue to be driven back. Ukrainian forces repelled enemy attacks  in the areas of Spirne, Soledar, Mayorsk, Zaitseve, Odradivka, Vesela Dolyna, Vodyane and Novomykhayilivka settlements. They seem like atomatons, not thinking at all. Shades of the Winter War. They have been instructed by Putin to take Donetsk and cannot change tactics until the order is rescinded by Putin. In the mean time Ukrainian forces have recaptured the airport on the outskirts of Donetsk city as it is quite close to the front line.

Russians are reporting that Ukraine is concentrating troops and equipment on the Zaporizhzhia front between Donetsk city and the Dnipro river. There are reports of Russians stealing cars and trailers to transport loot from Melitopol into Crimea. They are likely moving their families to safety, anticipating AFU counter offensives. Russian forces are also reported to be moving towards Crimea. Melitopol is a major Russian base in southern Ukraine and an obvious target for Ukraine to split the occupied territory in half.  This would allow Ukraine to regain control of ZNPP as well. Russian troops would be isolated there and forced to surrender. 

Map showing the Zaporizhzhia front and the concentrations of Russian troops

The Kherson offensive will be slow as there is little or no cover and no real reason to hurry. AFU is content with throwing back Russian attacks and letting the Russian military trapped on the west side of the Dnipro wear themselves out and run down their supplies of ammunition and food. Russians build or repair bridges, ferries, pontoons, and Ukraine knocks them down. The Russians have moved the front line back closer to the Dnipro river so they can be covered by artillery from the east bank. According to major general Dmytro Marchenko (mastermind of Mykolaiv defense in first month of war) in last 2 weeks RU lost in Kherson region ~1.8K troops, 120 MBTs, 130 tube artillery pieces, 20 MLRS, 2 helicopters, 2 planes. There are rumours that some of the troops are negotiating to surrender. 

When opportunity arises, the AFU slowly move forward and may have retaken Kiselyvka, which is 25 km away from Kherson City. The bridge and river crossing are now within reach of Ukrainian artillery. If true, only one settlement, Chornobaivka, remains to be liberated to reach Kherson City.

Recent activity on the Kherson front

There is a 30-40% chance that the Russian army will collapse by Christmas and the war in Ukraine will come to an end - Edward Stringer, Marshall of the Royal Air Force. Kremlin is working to shift blame for the fiasco onto the shoulders of military advisors to clear Putin of any responsibility. Ukrainian Intelligence reports that Russia is no longer sending reinforcements to the front as troops are refusing to go. Hardliners are demanding that Russia formally declare war and mobilize accordingly. It would take months to train troops and equipment is almost non-existent. And middle class Russians would be on the streets protesting if their boys were forced to fight.

BBC reports a failed assassination attempt on Putin. Rumours of coups and assassinations are the replacement for the Putin is dying of cancer etc. circulated earlier. We can always hope BUT a hardliner is most likely to replace him.

Ukrainian peace proposals have changed dramatically since the beginning of the war

Zelensky has been busy visiting the front compared to Putin who sits at his long desk

I wish someone would do this with a Kossak and a Bear