Friday, September 23, 2022

Putin Declares Mobilization and Referenda

 First some good news. 215 Ukrainian prisoners were exchanged for Putin's man in Ukraine, Victor Medvedchuk, and 54 other Russian prisoners. Among the Ukrainians released are 108 survivors of Azovstal in the battle for Matiupol. Some of them are also survivors of the murder of 53 Azovstal prisoners and the wounding of over 100 others in the Olenivka Prison Camp when the Russian mercenry Wagner Group either planted or fired an incendiary bomb into the dormatory. The swap was arranged by Saudi Arabia and facilitated by Turkey.

Paramedic Kateryna “Ptashka” Polishchuk

Marine Mykhailo Dianov 

Five commanders from Avolstal will spend the rest of the war in Turkey

Two days ago, Putin made a speech on national TV announcing a "Partial Mobilization" and agreeing that refernda would be held in the occupied Oblasts about becoming part of the Russian Federation. A referendum would be held in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia from Septembere 23rd to September 27th. How they will be held is irrelevent, though "on-line" has been sugggested, as the results are already tabulated and will be in the North Korean area of 97% one suspects. The Oblasts will immediately be declared part of Russian Federation. And concluded by threatening nuclear response for the Nine hundred and thirty eleventh time and said he is not bluffing. 

NOTE: Update 27/09/2022: Voting was conducted door to door with armed soldiers ensuring people voted yes. Some had to vote more than once for absent family members. 

Of course he is bluffing as he is holding a busted flush, ten high. No one will take seriously the results of the referenda. He may be insane enough to use nucs but his immediate coterie of underlings is not. And if I understood it right, Joe Biden said if they do use nucs, USA will establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine and send the entire Russian Black Sea fleet to join the Moskva, all in 24 hours. Now, Joe is not bluffing.

Putin's main purpose was declaring a "partial mobilization" of 300,000 former reservists. He lied of course. It is a full mobilization, as anyone between 18 and 65 can and will be "drafted". All contract soldiers are now permanent. Plane tickets out of the country went to $11,000 and cars are lined up at every border out of the country that will allow them in.  Belarus and Kazakhstsn are not cooperating, Germany thinks they should be allowed into the EU.

People are very angry and have taken to the streets although not in numbers large enough to make a difference. Protesters are hauled away and immediately drafted. No one comes to their rescue. Of course the main hardship will fall on the ethnic groups who have already suffered the highest percapita losses. In Buriatia, students are grabbed froim the schools, people are pulled from their beds, villages are emptied of all males of fighting age, given half an hour to pack and report.

They are supposed to get two weeks training before being sent to the front but there are no training centres large enough to handle the numbers. They will have no uniforms unless they bring their own. They will have no or very old equipment  and certainly no heavy arms. They are being sent to the front to die. If they refuse to fight, they will be shot. If they retreat or try to surrender they will be shot. Their only hope is to shoot their officers and surrender. 

This is Putin's version of a Stalanist ethnic purge. He will throw masses of soldiers at the Ukrainian lines. The more that get killed the better. He can't deport them as Stalin did, nor can send them to the Gulag. There are too many. So if they die, so much the better. And get rid of the trouble makers too. He could draft as many as a million. As is the Russian pattern, he is taking out his losses on his own people.

Putin likes to think he is Peter the Great or Stalin. He is far more like Nicholas II in 1914 and his army suffers from the same shortcomings. Both looked good only on paper. 

The Army of Nicholas II was clumsy and inefficient precisely because the tsarist regime itself was clumsy and inefficient. Its façade may have been magnificent, glittering—but a glance behind the curtain disclosed indolence, incompetence, indifference, corruption and decay. Given tsarist Russia’s natural advantages, it ought to have been a great power to rival the United States. But thanks to its structural deficiencies it was the weakest, most fragile of the great powers. The poor performance of the Russian Army in 1914-17 faithfully reflected the defects of the regime it served.

V. Putin may aspire to emulate Peter the Great and Stalin, but his regime most resembles that presided over by the last tsar. In such a state the despot’s formal monopoly on power is absolute but his actual power is much less, its exercise being dependent on the loyalty and competence of underlings. But since despotism puts a premium on loyalty, competence is relegated to second place.

This is a comparison of the armies of Putin in Ukraine and the armies of Ncholas II at Tanneberg in 1914. Well worth a read. https://unwokeindianaag.substack.com/p/tannenberg-revisited 

In 1917 the Russian soldiers shot their officers, threw down their arms and went home. This led to the takeover or Russia by the Bolsheviks and a five year civil war that killed millions.


17 comments:

  1. Shudder.
    Yet again I am reminded of my father's saying that there are no winners in war. Losers and bigger losers.
    And the insane people who start them (while staying out of harm's way).

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  2. \\Victor Medvedchuk, and 54 other Russian prisoners.

    55+1

    Of which 5 was from "free and independent republics"(shows priorities, clearly)
    50 ruSSian officers.
    But most clealry that is just to obfuscate that transparent truth -- that ONLY ONE was really needed for Putin -- father-in-christ of his children.


    \\ either planted or fired a thermobaric bomb into the dormatory.

    That was disproved. Thermobaric do not work that way.


    \\Septembere 23rd to September 28th.

    Em, 27th. Thusday. Final day of that "referendum".


    \\How they will be held is irrelevent, though "on-line" has been sugggested

    RELEVANT.
    As they do it with GROUPS OF ARMED people going from door to door.
    Go explain it to your fellow westerners.
    Which will be ranting "but still, people did it of their free will".
    There'd be enough of such people, I prophess.


    \\And concluded by threatening nuclear response for the Nine hundred and thirty eleventh time and said he is not bluffing.

    He already squinted on this one. :-)))
    Putin's propaganda keep "correcting" that "that was not nuclear war threats".
    Shows that he himself more than in fear of such prospects.
    That is showdown of cowardice this time -- who will show that he fears WW3 MORE.


    \\No one will take seriously the results of the referenda.

    Hah? The same as it was with Crimea?
    But he have a hold of it since. And doesn't care about that "No one will take seriously".
    Whom are you kidding here?
    That is PERFECTLY what he counts it -- teethless response AND THIS TIME TOO.


    \\It is a full mobilization, as anyone between 18 and 65 can and will be "drafted".

    Well, propaganda "corrected" this too, since.
    Now "only 35 and younger" will be drafted.
    And they would not be sent to frontlines... second line, maybe... but, no-no-no, not on the front.
    And there'd be lots of exceptions.
    And there'd be RICH (by RFia's standards) wages, bonuses and perks.


    \\If they refuse to fight, they will be shot.

    Still... heard no reports. Intimidated? Yes. Put in custody? Yes. Harrased to be imprisoned (but they recruit prisoners too)? Yes.
    But this far there was no reports of DIA this way.
    Or you know something?


    \\Putin likes to think he is Peter the Great or Stalin. He is far more like Nicholas II in 1914

    Or... Turkey's last emperor. ;-)


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    1. Corrected a couple of things. My sources said 55 Russians. No Russians believe the Kremlin version of the mobilization as they see who is being forceably drafted. None of them have reached the front lines yet but will very soon. Searches for information on how to surrender are skyrocketing. They will be pressganging Ukrinians from the newly declared "Russian Oblasts" and I worry about them.

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    2. \\Corrected a couple of things. My sources said 55 Russians.

      Yes. That IS as it was.
      They tryed to ommit, to obfuscate mentioning of that most important ONE. ;-)
      For ruSSians to not start asking WHY such "unfair" "exchange rate". :-))) 200 for mere 50.
      That is ONE MOST IMPORTANT thing one need to grasp firmly in respect to all info about ruSSians. They call it "read in between lines" and very proud of it. NO, practicly NO, Nothing, Nada in there claims is a truth. Or complete truth.
      Especially if in war-times.
      That is part of their culture. Something they suck with mother's milk.
      How to lie. Countrywide.


      \\None of them have reached the front lines yet but will very soon.

      There is reports already. With video. ;-) Very fresh "chmonia", as we call that loosers in Ukraine. Shitbags? Bozos? Homeless? Punks? What would be better to translate it?
      Or... take it as it is, and make it widespread. To call ALL RFia's soldiers with that (quite suiting) shit-name. ;-)))


      \\They will be pressganging Ukrinians from the newly declared "Russian Oblasts" and I worry about them.

      Well. That is what they deserve for being indifferent, for giving their votes for pro-russian politicians for all this 30 years, for being hopeful of RFia's inception, for being colaborants.
      Reality, that nasty bitch, comes to collect her dues. Rarely, but it do come.

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    3. 55 Russians, Including Medvedchuk. No one is lying or trying to hide everything. Yes, the conscripts have already reached the front lines and are surrendering. This was not the case when I posted the blog. Not all the Ukrainians in the occupied oblasts are pro-Russian though many may have been. I do hope once given guns they turn on their officers (if they have any) and then surrender.

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    4. Well, information tends to trickle little by little.
      Like... they say that among that 50 (and maybe that 5 too) there was some high-ranked officers captured recently in Kharkiv's offensive.
      That's why Putin was in such a hurry to exchange them.
      Imagine, if Ukraine showed some generals on TV, and maybe on UN SC instead of trading em quietly.

      Putin grossly do not care about mere soldiers (well, he still believe that he'll conquer all Ukraine, so there is no need to hurry).


      About H-1 aka Cobras -- they still in use in NATO countries.
      Just saw it recently on the Web.

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    5. Looks like Belarus will invade down the west side in November. 120K Russian troops and equipment moving into Belarus and a month to train them. Putin does not care if 500,000 Russian troops die. And the destruction of the gas pipelines as a warning to europe that he can destroy others and cables and such. I never heard of underwater drones but I guess why not?

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    6. Yep. Brusilov's attack. Attack along all of the frontlines with hope that somewhere it'll rip through... that is LAST possible chance to try to make it with mere foot soldiers of mizerly quality...
      Yawn.
      Own pipelines. That is telling.
      He fears NATO much more than he trying to show to that stupid public inside his RFia.
      He blatantly FEARS to touch em even with one finger...
      And that is all while INSIDE RFia, again, war drooms beating non-end... Well, no, they are gauged too :-))))))

      Such an "escalation without escalation" need a cowardly idiot to submit to it.
      But well, he thinks exactly that -- that Europeans, and West in general is nothing but that cowardly idiots... like himself.


      Oh... there 1000 and 1 way to do that. Drones, divers, torpedos, floating mines and etc, etc.
      That is just, nobody CARED about such a possibility.
      Same as it was with 9/11.

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    7. The numbers on Belarus don't add up. They are only preparing for 20,000 Russian soldiers most likely for training and also for launching rockets and air attacks. Belarus only has 60,000 odd military and it is highly unlikely that Lukashenko will forcibly draft another 20,000. And if he invades Ukraine, Poland has an excuse to enter the war which they would love to do.

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    8. Well, with Belarus invovlment it would be "officially" World War :-)))

      Lukashenko's position is vulnerable as it always was.
      And only thick forests for people to refuge, if something.
      As it always was in a history.

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  3. Ukraine is Putin's Vietnam. Cue the draft dodgers!

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    1. Putin is deliberatly allowing men to escape from Russia. The sons of the well connected need not worry. but the few days from announcement allows the wealthier population to escape. Those that can afford $10K airline tickets and those with cars. He is not interested in them anyhow, just the ethnic minorities eg Crimean Tatars, Daghestanis, Buriats, Tuvinians.

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  4. when is someone going to rid the president of Russia and the xpresident of the USA?

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    1. 64 million dollar question, isn't it? Everything I read says Putin's days are numbered but not likely until after Russia loses badly.

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  5. This blog was done in a hurry and I have been away from y computer until today. I will go through it and correct AZOVSTAL especially. Good grief.

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  6. Tundra Bunny here... I just watched two documentary series on PBS recently that were both excellent: "Rise of the Nazis" (6 hrs) and "The U.S. and the Holocaust" (6 hrs, Ken Burns). Totalitarian dictators all operate from the same play book. Putin, like Hitler and Stalin before him, will not hesitate to kill thousands of Ukrainians and Russians to cling to power. The Ukraine has learned those lessons from history -- why can't we?

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    Replies
    1. The German philosopher Georg Hegel famously said, “The only thing that we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history.”

      Delete

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