This is raw Google Translate from a Facebook post on the page Русский Крым - что дальше? Essentially Russia is facing economic disaster once Iranian sanctions are lifted and Iranian oil hits the world markets.
Cause of the war between Russia and Ukraine - primarily economic !
January 20 agreement entered into force on Iran. Iran promises to curtail its nuclear program , the West leads to a complete lifting of sanctions until 20 June 2014 , and the oil embargo in particular. Then you should expect an increase in oil supplies of the Persian one million barrels per day to a level of 4 million barrels a day by June , which of course , will significantly reduce the price per barrel. What's quite interesting to Russia , because its budget is written based on the price of $ 90 and below $ 60 leads to serious consequences for the country. It is easy to imagine that so difficult socio-economic situation will become critical Russia (and even revolutionary , good example of very close ) .
In general , trends in Russia in terms of oil and gas are becoming quite alarming . Crushed shale revolution is impossible. The Wall Street Journal published the results of the analysis of the global energy market indicators , according to which the U.S. bypass Russia by total oil and gas production . In July 2013 oil, gas and related fuels in the United States exceeded the daily volume equivalent to 22 million barrels , while Russia produced 21.8 million barrels. This means that for the first time since 1982 the U.S. also produced more natural gas than Russia . This means that the U.S. is beginning to create a Russian military threat is not fictional and the real economic . According to forecasts of the Institute of Energy Research, starting in 2015, Russia's gas exports could fall by 25-30 % , which would reduce Russia's GDP by $ 100 billion
Prices for oil and gas are determined by several factors : global demand , speculative pressure on the financial markets and the geopolitical situation . Demand is gradually recovering from the recession , but not as fast as we would like . At the same time the market will push more volumes that will go from Iran. The only factor affecting fluctuations in oil prices remain speculation in the stock markets due to various crises , including military conflicts . You should also consider the interests of OPEC , which will not allow the price of oil down stricter quotas on oil exports , which again would entail a crushing blow to the Russian economy. And in early 2015 , Putin can get in the Kremlin at its Independence .
What can Russia do in this situation : create conflict and incurring sanctions , not only did not give prices fall because of the new Iranian volumes , but also raise the price of oil and gas , while selling its oil , passing it off as Iranian ( Russia already has close ties with Iran ); predictably devalue the ruble, which gives exporters more revenue in rubles , including and the supply of goods to Iran. At the same time you can have in a new light once again to present all the benefits of the development of the South Stream bypassing unstable region . Why all this ? To force the U.S. to the negotiating table . Everyone understands that Russia can not long retain this situation , but to enter into negotiations with the U.S. on a whole range of world problems in its wake they can .
From the outset, it was simple to understand that it is not in the protection of Russians in the Crimea. Russia defends its fuel interests , simultaneously removing the prerequisites for the development of a revolutionary situation in the country. And, of course , develops Putin 's geopolitical ambition to restore Russia 's superpower status .
What will make the international community :
U.S., Britain and Russia were the guarantors of security in Ukraine Ukraine's rejection of nuclear weapons. There are two very important points . If now the club of nuclear states do not immediately stop Russian aggression towards Ukraine , they will show the world , all the countries that the only real protection is exclusively nuclear weapons. Ie it would lead to the uncontrolled growth of the number of nuclear weapons in the world.
The second important point in the status of the U.S. and UK . U.S. flaunts his status as a superpower . And she she remains until it is believed by others. How long it will believe in other countries if the United States can not meet its formal commitment ? Therefore, the problem is now the United States as quickly as possible and with minimal casualties to resolve the issue . And there will not even raise an issue about the federalization of Ukraine , or even more so on the separation of the Crimea. Since this signal is perceived by the world community as a loss by the United States as U.S. weakness . And on this the U.S. will never .
The third point - the U.S. economy picks up , which is always on the background of its military actions in other countries. And even more needed in the current situation when they difficult economic situation . Therefore , the U.S. administration is praying now to ensure that its carriers had put pinpoint strikes to resolve the conflict peacefully.
The fourth point - finally , the U.S. , China has a real opportunity to solve the problem of Russia as a superpower . Well, who likes to sit next to a monkey with a grenade in his paw . Anyone. All will try to shoot the monkey and take her hand grenade from the dead paws.
The fifth point - the EU , China dreaming normal raw politics of Russia after Putin's destruction and the collapse of Russia . Moreover, Japan and China have their own interests in the territories of Russia . And then such a wonderful occasion to annex not native Russian land. By the way, we also can give a hint about the Kuban within the borders of Ukraine in 1918 ... Also fought because ... I think that, as in the second world no one will mind a little redistribution ...
Regarding targeted sanctions . The backbone of a cohort of people who listens to make Putin KGB in which all funds in Russia and which are , as it is no wonder the USSR and the patriots who do not care for any targeted sanctions of the international community .
What can the international community do ? Or return to the path of Iran 's nuclear program (which now makes Putin , hinting that the papers are not a guarantee ) , the consequence of which will return to the policy of economic sanctions against Iran and return to high oil prices . Or already a complete embargo on Russia , as in his time , made with Iran, Iraq , North Korea and similar countries . At the same time Ukraine will be in NATO and the EU and all sorts of ways to strengthen the border of Ukraine with Russia . Until the solid walls .
What can we do to ordinary citizens ? To prepare for guerrilla war , as now Putin has no options . It is extremely important to the armed conflict . If he happens to grab at least a small piece of land he will move on, glowing environment and increasing energy prices . Will not work - then there will be a reason to declare martial law , put all under the gun off the Internet and barbed wire to enclose . Well, blame all economic woes decaying West and Russia vsiya himself king , and anointed of God pr.pr. And once again raise the cost of energy . Why not ready to fight in the army . Because this would have to have served in the army at least a year . And best of two. Do not scrub the toilets and not to paint trees . Namely serve. Because the army is a complex mechanism . A militia is the people who give a rifle at five . And the costs of their transportation to the place of confrontation does not correspond to a pair of hours of time and expense of the enemy bullets. But guerrilla is where we in small groups not quite know how to fight in the ranks can cause very significant damage to enemy forces .
What do the authorities :
1. Immediate arrest of key criminals started to destabilize the region .
2 . Intensify the reform of the country to improve the efficiency of the economy, law enforcement and military
3 . Intensify the search for external military and political allies , and clearly state their common interests
4 . Begin immediate training of all those wishing to use weapons , action in partisan detachments , demolition case. Begin the formation of guerrilla groups and the distribution of weapons, ammunition, as well as provisioning of ammunition on site which can be occupied by the enemy for guerrilla warfare.
5 . Immediately develop a plan to provide mass care and start learning all the inhabitants of Ukraine ability to provide emergency care for injuries
6. Nationalize all fully or partially by Russian companies.
7. Immediately stop broadcasting all Russian TV channels , with the prohibition of their relay any cable network and broadcast in the normal range jamming suppression systems along the border.
8. Immediately stop the transit of any goods, gas, oil and other elements on the territory of Ukraine .
9. Immediately stop and recognize void all payments on all debts and agreements with Russia. Putin officially announced that Ukraine does not recognize the state and does not recognize any agreements with them. Will fulfill his wish .
10 . Develop a plan of destabilization of the aggressor , using the media, social networking , advocacy and other methods
11. Denouncement of the Kharkov agreements and agreements on the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation . Declare in parliament finding any troops on the territory of Crimea , Ukraine illegal in any quantity
12. Close the border with Russia on entry, as well as the airspace along the border with Russia .
13. Immediately request military assistance from the allied countries and guarantors of security of Ukraine , NATO to secure the Crimea, eastern provinces.
14. Immediately throw all its troops from the western and central areas to the east , south and north of Ukraine.
15. Block runways of all airports in Ukraine , including abandoned , military and civilian . We do not need Russian GRU dropping the rear.
16. To attack the Crimea with tanks . Pulls up a column of tanks , made the announcement to the checkpoint with guns surrendered . Tanks are covered by snipers from anti-tank systems . Profit . All are in the Crimea men with guns do not belong to the army of the Russian Federation , according to official statements by Putin and Shoigu. Consequently, this bandit . It's not POWs . It's just thugs in wartime .
17. All parts of the Russian Black Sea Fleet to give one day to vacate the territory of Ukraine (including their former base in the Crimea). Based denounced ASU agreement on Black Sea Fleet in Crimea . At default - open fire on ( with the support of NATO).
Why violent confrontation ? Because the question is not about Russian in Crimea. Not about territory (this is only a by-product ) . And the price of oil. And on this issue , and if will talk with Putin at the level of the international community , they will go a very long time . During this time he will be more military force (tanks already deployed ) in the Crimea. Referendum in Crimea postponed to March 16. Ballots printed and brought to Russia . Counting Commission of the number of " tourists " with Russia formed. Print all DECs captured today in the office AVE. Therefore , the Crimea to Russia will receive 105% support " Crimean ". Will be followed by all the eastern region , Transnistria and, if possible , other parts of Ukraine. Then go Poland, Lithuania and further to the West .
Regarding the drop in prices of shares and other nonsense . Before the crisis, the EBM course was about 1420 . Now it falls to 1310 and , by the end of the day back to the previous value ) . At the same time , the minimum rate was last fall at the level of 1200 . ( exact figures , see for yourself ) . So stop worrying about them . The only thing that really affect the Russian economy is the oil price . And it is growing . Therefore financial Russia wins now and it will benefit from such position (exacerbation and more) . That's when the float in Russia 200 Tide , then everything will be completely different.
Please make maximum repost , because not everyone understands the true reason Putin's behavior and , as a consequence, the wrong conclusions about the purposes and methods of action of Russian troops .
A little bit about the relationship of oil prices and conflict :
1956 . Suez Crisis . The price of oil increased by 2 times
1967 . The Six Day War between Israel and a coalition of Arab states. Prices rose by 20%
1973 . The first oil embargo . Prices increased by 4 times.
1979 . The Islamic Revolution in Iran - an increase of 70%
1980 . Iraq attacked Iran . Prices rose by 270 %
1990 . Iraq invaded Kuwait . Prices increased by 2 times
1998 . Large-scale economic crisis in Asia. Price drop in 2 times. Major crisis in Russia.
2003 . U.S. launched the war in Iraq. Prices rose by 50%
2011 . "Arab Spring" . Prices rose by 30%
2012 . The conflict in Syria. Prices rose by 20%
2012 . Introduction U.S. and EU sanctions against Iran. Prices rose by 30%
Glory to Ukraine !