Canada’s 2019 Election and Proportional Representation

Election Results (source National Post)

Canada held its 43^rd Federal election on October 21^st, 2019. The results are a Liberal minority government with the New Democrats in a position of power. The Liberals were shut out of Alberta and Saskatchewan but did well east of Manitoba

For the second time in Canadian history, a government will be formed that does not have the highest popular vote. The Liberals have 33.1% to the Conservatives 34.4%. 

In 2015 Justin Trudeau campaigned on changing the electoral system to some form of proportional representation (PR) rather than first past the post or FPP. PR is back in the limelight again, as the actual seats won by the parties have little relationship to their share of the popular vote.

I have strongly opposed PR because of my experience with Ukraine’s electoral system and wonderful examples like Italy. However, a Facebook friend, Daren Schemmer, of Simon Fraser University (SFU)[1] who has been patient with me for four years, suggested I check out the system used by Ireland and New Zealand. I did and now I’m a believer.[2]

I examined seats won and seats that would have been won on Canadian wide PR or on Province Wide PR. Twelve seats are required to be a recognized political party in Canada, so I arbitrarily did not count parties with less than 3.5% of the vote*. To give the territories (YT, NT, NU) some choice, I also lumped the three together for a final scenario**.

Party Representation by Various Electoral Systems

	% Votes	Actual	Country*	Provincial*	Provincial**
Liberal	33.1%	157	115	116	115
Conservative	34.4%	121	119	118	119
New Democratic	15.9%	24	55	56	56
Bloc Quebecois	7.7%	32	27	26	26
Green	6.5%	3	23	22	22
People's Party	1.7%
Independent/other	0.4%	1
Other	99.7%	338	338	338	338

Technically, the Conservatives, under provincial proportional representation could have formed a minority government, IF any of the other parties would agree to any of their legislation. I cannot imagine a Conservative budget that would not lose a vote of non-confidence.

Alberta has another legitimate grip about the number of seats relative to population. Both Alberta and BC are underrepresented in the House of Commons based on population. So is Ontario. The rules around composition of the House of Commons are quite complex and involve a great deal of horse-trading, however they have been changed frequently and should be so again, even for FPP.

Provincial Representation in the House of Commons

Name	2019 Population	2019 Constituencies	Pop’n per Constituency	Par with Quebec
Ontario	14,446,515	121	119,393	134
Quebec	8,433,301	78	108,119	78
British Columbia	5,020,302	42	119,531	46
Alberta	4,345,737	34	127,816	40
Manitoba	1,360,396	14	97,171	13
Saskatchewan	1,168,423	14	83,459	11
Nova Scotia	965,382	10	96,538	9
New Brunswick	772,094	11	70,190	7
Newfoundland	523,790	7	74,827	5
Prince Edward Is.	154,748	4	38,687	1
Northwest Territory	44,598	1	44,598	1
Yukon	40,369	1	40,369	1
Nunavut	38,787	1	38,787	1
		338		350

Provincial PR allows for regional parties such as the BQ but does not allow for non-affiliated or independents. Jody Wilson-Raybould would not have a seat under such a scenario. Fringe parties such as the PPC, are kept to a minimum, though no one knows how the votes would go under a proportional system.

However, a system like Ireland with three seats to a constituency does allow independents. That would look after the three territories. It provides a certain amount of leeway for everyone’s choice to be recognized and allows for some feeling of local representation as well. Apparently, five seats per constituency prevent any form of Gerrymandering.

Voting is done by Single Transferable Vote, where candidates are ranked by choice of the voter. Where this is done in a single constituency it is known as the Instant Run-off Vote. Australia uses this system. Figuring out how to count STV ballots appears extremely complicated. If there is no simple way that can be explained in less than a minute, it is a non-starter in my books and maybe why it didn’t go over in BC.

Whether the Liberals can be forced to live up to their 2015 promise now that they have to depend on parties that favour it to stay in power remains to be seen.

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[1] Good thing Simon Fraser’s middle name wasn’t Thomas or the university would be known as STFU.

[2] You now have an earworm, you say? You’re welcome.