Thoughts on the Russian War Against Ukraine

 Information comes So rapidly, it is hard to keep up and have even a semi-informed opinion.

Steve Schmidt from The Warning wrote this today:

The war in Ukraine is an illegal war. It is a war of criminal aggression by a larger and more powerful nation, Russia, and a smaller nation, Ukraine. The Russian army has committed countless war crimes and acts of brutality against peaceful people as they raped, murdered, tortured, and pilfered. The Russians have emptied their prisons and drafted hundreds of thousands of young men to fight in Putin’s war of conquest against a European nation in the third decade of the 21st century. . .

The Russian army has been bloodied and humiliated by the Ukrainian army, but they have not been defeated. The Russian army is gathering, expanding, and attacking. It is indifferent to human life and suffering. 

The question at hand is this: how can that Russian army be destroyed in Ukraine before it advances into the next country? This is the fundamental question, and the most important issue facing the world right now. Should the battle lines expand beyond Ukraine, and converge with one or two other conflicts, the world could be at the edge of a third world war where nine countries have nuclear weapons. It means the doomsday clock would stand at one second to midnight. 

Allied tactics have been to trickle arms into Ukraine, after the fact, to keep Ukraine from losing, but not cause the Russians to escalate the war drawing in NATO forces. This has worked at great cost to Ukraine. Ukraine has been pleading for better anti-missile and anti-aircraft weapons. The Kh-22 ballistic missile with a 900 kg warhead, which destroyed an apartment block in Dnipro, killing more than 45 people and injuring more than 80, is an old Soviet anti-aircraft carrier missile against which Ukraine has no defense. They have been used before but finally Ukraine will get Patriot missiles capable of knocking them down. 

The big argument is it takes time to train people. Bulltweety. The war is 2 days short of 11 months old. There has been lots of time. Since the beginning and even before the war, AFU soldiers are being trained in combat by Canadians, British, Americans and other allies. Ukrainian pilots are now being trained in flying F16s and America has no objection to allies sending their F16s to Ukraine. Combined with A10 Warthogs, they make a formidable team. But the excuse about Warthogs is that unless you have complete control of the skies, they are slow and vulnerable. 

Russia is afraid to fly their planes into Ukrainian airspace because the get shot down. But Ukraine is not given the means to hit the bases in Russia to destroy their fighters and bombers. Ukraine is developing its own long range drones so the Russians can't blame NATO for that. And apparently they may be getting American missiles that can hit deep in Crimea, 250 miles to 350 miles range, but can't use them to hit inside Russia.

Lucian Truscott IV wrote this in his substack column: 

The U.S. does not literally have boots on the ground in Ukraine, but it’s got pretty much everything else on the ground there, from MRAP mine-resistant armored personnel carriers to 155mm howitzers to Avenger radar-controlled air defense systems to Javelin anti-tank weapons to Stinger shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles to HIMARS rocket systems to Humvees and personal-protection equipment such as helmets, bulletproof vests, boots and winter uniforms. . . 

The CIA and NSA can see everything Russia does in Ukraine from satellites. They know where every Russian battalion group is located, what its unit designation is and most likely the name of the Russian battalion commander. They can see every movement of every Russian tank, armored personnel carrier, and resupply truck, and see what is loaded on every flatbed railroad car headed from Russia into eastern Ukraine.

The Americans share all military transfers to Ukraine and all intelligence about Russia in plain view of Putin, letting him know that they are solidly on side with Ukraine. And they have recently approved 2.5 billion in future aid. Lawrence Freedman in Comments is Freed "Proxies and Puppets" writes 

On Thursday, nine of Ukraine’s more robust supporters, including the UK, announced a raft of new measures with lots of ammunition, training and anti-aircraft guns, as well as 600 Brimstone missiles from the UK, 19 French-made Caesar howitzers from Denmark, and Sweden’s Archer artillery system. . .

 ‘We recognise that equipping Ukraine to push Russia out of its territory is as important as equipping them to defend what they already have. Together we will continue supporting Ukraine to move from resisting to expelling Russian forces from Ukrainian soil. By bringing together Allies and partners, we are ensuring the surge of global military support is as strategic and coordinated as possible. The new level of required combat power is only achieved by combinations of main battle tank squadrons, beneath air and missile defence, operating alongside divisional artillery groups, and further deep precision fires enabling targeting of Russian logistics and command nodes in occupied territory.’

 Aye, there's the rub. Ukraine needs 300 Main Battle Tanks to mount a credible offense while at the same tile Russia is building up for their own offensive assault in spring or sooner. But they can't get them. There are all kinds of Leopard II MBTs available and countries that will give them but they cannot without German permission. Which is consistently refused. Germany, which is the third largest contributor of Military aid to Ukraine behind America and Britain, will not give permission for transfer of Leopard II MBTs. F

Scholtz said other countries have to go first, so Britain is supplying a battalion of their MBTs, Challenger II. Then Scholtz moved the goal posts and said America has to give Abram tanks first. America is not about to send Abrams tanks because as Lucian Truscott IV points out: 

U.S. reluctance to send Abrams tanks to Ukraine stems from a number of reasons. These are the most highly advanced armored vehicles in the world. They are basically an armored interface with the electronic battlefield mounted on tracks:  Everything on board is connected to satellite guidance and intelligence systems with computerized targeting, all defended by complicated high-tech armor and attack-avoidance devices. Training in the combat use of the Abrams takes months, but that’s not the only issue. Everything on the Abrams is in danger of breaking down and the whole apparatus needs constant maintenance, much of which can only be done by specialized civilian technicians

Not going to happen in a hot war zone. Though to be honest I wish Biden would call Sholtz's bluff and send a dozen over even if they aren't put into use.  Further to Ukraine needing MBTs, their military also must be trained in combined operations, (a tactic that integrates armored and infantry units with artillery and air defenses in attacks on the enemy. Combined operations are baked into U.S. tactics and are basic to the training of all soldiers, from privates in the foxholes to colonels and generals who command thousands of combat troops). This training is already happening though Oklahoma is suing to prevent "foreign troops" from being stationed in the state.  

The Kremlin claims that America and NATO are engaging in a proxy war to destroy Russia. Yes, and no. Ukraine is fighting Russian Imperialism on behalf of Europe and the world. If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, Poland, the Baltics, Romania are all next in line. NATO is immediately involved with boots on the ground. 

What is the end game? Allied tactics have avoided an "escalation" involving NATO and have kept Ukraine from losing BUT even though they pay lip service, there is NO strategy for winning. Zelensky laid out five non-negotiable points for peace, increasing them to ten a few months later.  Putin is reinforcing the area in Ukraine he has already taken, hoping for a negotiated settlement that leaves him in control. At the moment there is nothing to negotiate.

If Russia is simply driven back to 1991 Ukrainian borders, with no further action from the EU or NATO, even if Russian assets are used to rebuild Ukraine and sanctions continue, Russia is not beaten and will be back in "ten" years. They have survived Stalin, they have survived WWII. The Russian people and therefor Russia will survive with no lessons learned. 

Ukraine must win and Russia as an imperial power must be destroyed. Now or ten years from now. 

155 mm Howitzer

HIMARS

ATACMS

Leopard II Main Battle Tank