Sunday, May 18, 2014

Ukraine - Next Sunday (25th) is Election Day

This coming week is going to be real interesting to see how Putin intends to derail the election slated for the 25th.  The interim government in Kyiv has been counting on this to give them the legitimacy they lack, having had to appoint an acting president and cabinet in February.  Once they have an elected president who then appoints his or her cabinet Putin and Lavrov lose one of their pressure points.

The terrorists in Luhansk and Donetsk have said there will be no presidential elections held there which will give Russia all the excuse it needs to not recognize it.  Putin is a tactician which is to say he can adjust tactics to changing conditions.

So far none of the probable scenarios have worked out.  There has been no support for the Pro-Russian separatist terrorists (they have now been legally named as such by Kyiv) in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiyev or Odessa in spite of attempts to stir things up which in Odessa culminated in the deaths of over 40 people on May 2.

There has been no slaughter of the innocents, in spite of all the foaming at the mouth of Russian media so no excuse other than blatant aggression for an invasion.  The anti-terrorist operation (ATO) lost at least 24 soldiers, no count on the terrorists killed, but they don't seem to make any headway in clearing out the viper's nests.

After the phony referendum last Sunday, the "Leader" of the DPR thugs and gunmen called on Putin to invade and save them but no one moved.  I wonder if they feel abandoned or do they know what comes next?  The extreme right neo-Nazi groups in Russia are advertising on social media for "volunteers" to fight in Ukraine.

A militia group, trained and financed in Dnipropetrovsk was headed to Mariupol when Akhmetov suddenly came to life and sent some of his 250,000 employees in coal and steel to clean out the city of pro-Russians and maintain the peace.  He signed an agreement with the city and as I understand it with the "Donbass People's Republic(1)" as well.  No one knows which side he is on but everyone knows he will look out for himself.

He can control his employees but not the Dnipropetrovsk militia so he figured to preempt them, I guess.  His future depends on staying part of Ukraine.  The Donbass, like Crimea, is a net drain on Ukrainian finances even when on the up and up.  The coal mines and steel mills need huge subsidies to stay in business.  Across the border in Russia all but three of the underground coal mines have been shut down as Russia relies on open pit mines now and the last thing the Russians there want is for Luhansk and Donetsk to join Russia.

The ultimate goal is the "federalization" of Ukraine which would allow Russia to derail any movement towards the EU or NATO and allow the mob to continue to control their territory.  The result would be essentially two Ukraines, east and west.  One can also be certain that the destabilization activities would move into other Oblasts.  Decentralization, yes, but federalization, especially as proposed by Russia, absolutely NOT>

The interim government has begun a series of round-table talks on the future of Ukraine but it seems hard to find actual leaders who speak for people from the southeast that will talk.  Obviously the terrorists have no intention of talking; their role is to disrupt.  Actually things never really heated up until Kyiv offered to meet with and discuss language and other issues with the south east (or east, whatever you want to call it) of Ukraine.  that was when gunmen and thugs started terrorizing the place, to make sure that the talks could not take place in a constructive atmosphere.

You may have heard that some of the Russian military on the other side of the border is decked out in UN peacekeeping colours.  This may seem a bit presumptive on their part, don't you think?  Anyhow, to counter it, they claim that a Ukrainian helicopter in UN colours participated in an attack on Sloviansk, complete with a video on YouTube with the commanding officer giving a speech, all intermingled with footage of the Sloviansk action.  It seems the video of helicopter and speech were from a Ukrainian peacekeeping mission in Africa (Congo?) TWO years ago.   You can be certain that information will never find its way behind the Iron Information Curtain.

(1) Have you ever noticed that any place named People's Republic is anything but?

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