The "referendum" in Luhansk and Donetsk is going ahead today as Putin knew it would. His advice to "postpone" it was so much plausible deniability. The troops he "ordered pulled back" have not moved. He thinks now the Presidential election set for May 25th is a good thing and should go ahead which means he has an ace up his sleeve.
One good thing, it no longer appears to be an invasion. Those of us who predicted it are quite pleased we are wrong. It could still be triggered by a huge increase in violence if the civil war he started gets out of control. The forces near the border are now carrying UN Peacekeeping insignia. As if. Without a UN Security Council resolution, Ukraine will treat them as an invading army and act accordingly.
He is now caught between a rock and a hard place as western sanctions will come down like a ton of bricks if he does and the ultra nationalism he has been encouraging for the past couple of years will attack him for betraying the very people he claimed to have started all this to protect.
There should be a pool for guessing the results of the "referendum" as Ukrainian Security Forces stopped a vehicle with 100,000 pre-marked ballots all for the YES side. Since the ballots are being run off on a photocopier, it just seemed simpler this way, I guess. Instructions are to pick a number and run with it. (YouTube) The Kremlin's instructions concerning the Referendum in Donetsk
At any rate it was certainly done on the cheap. According to Kyiv Post The slapdash referendum was coordinated solely by volunteers with no prior experience and cost a mere $1,600, according to vote organizers. Nearly $700 of that money went to toner for printers used to create more than three million ballots, they said.
Hard to say how the actual turnout will be as killings, abductions and beatings continue to terrorize the Oblasts. This site HERE has a current list. You can get your car windows all smashed just for having a small Ukrainian flag on display. Anyone who is pro-Kyiv stands to be "dealt with" by the terrorists. A pro-Kyiv presidential candidate has been abducted; whereabouts unknown so far.
The voting list is two years old, not that it matters, you can vote in any polling station you like, including all of them. Schools were taken over at gunpoint to use as polling stations. There are no international observers, not even extreme rightists as in Crimea. Journalists have been chased out of polling stations at gun point.
Terrorists report high turnout in Luhansk 65% by noon; journalists say that in Luhansk turnout is very low, maybe 30% and the acting governor says people are against the referendum but afraid to come out. Lineups in Donbass are huge as there are insufficient polling booths 1:100,000 instead of 1:2000 in some of the cities.
What do you think? 83% turn out and 97% in favour sounds reasonable. After all it worked last time. Stay tuned.
Update to a previous blog - if you have seen or heard anything about a pregnant woman murdered in the Odessa fire on May 2, ignore it. There was no pregnant woman in the building, even though the article with all the gruesome pictures showed one claiming to be someone cleaning the building at the time of the fire. The picture was fake.
One good thing, it no longer appears to be an invasion. Those of us who predicted it are quite pleased we are wrong. It could still be triggered by a huge increase in violence if the civil war he started gets out of control. The forces near the border are now carrying UN Peacekeeping insignia. As if. Without a UN Security Council resolution, Ukraine will treat them as an invading army and act accordingly.
He is now caught between a rock and a hard place as western sanctions will come down like a ton of bricks if he does and the ultra nationalism he has been encouraging for the past couple of years will attack him for betraying the very people he claimed to have started all this to protect.
There should be a pool for guessing the results of the "referendum" as Ukrainian Security Forces stopped a vehicle with 100,000 pre-marked ballots all for the YES side. Since the ballots are being run off on a photocopier, it just seemed simpler this way, I guess. Instructions are to pick a number and run with it. (YouTube) The Kremlin's instructions concerning the Referendum in Donetsk
At any rate it was certainly done on the cheap. According to Kyiv Post The slapdash referendum was coordinated solely by volunteers with no prior experience and cost a mere $1,600, according to vote organizers. Nearly $700 of that money went to toner for printers used to create more than three million ballots, they said.
Hard to say how the actual turnout will be as killings, abductions and beatings continue to terrorize the Oblasts. This site HERE has a current list. You can get your car windows all smashed just for having a small Ukrainian flag on display. Anyone who is pro-Kyiv stands to be "dealt with" by the terrorists. A pro-Kyiv presidential candidate has been abducted; whereabouts unknown so far.
The voting list is two years old, not that it matters, you can vote in any polling station you like, including all of them. Schools were taken over at gunpoint to use as polling stations. There are no international observers, not even extreme rightists as in Crimea. Journalists have been chased out of polling stations at gun point.
Terrorists report high turnout in Luhansk 65% by noon; journalists say that in Luhansk turnout is very low, maybe 30% and the acting governor says people are against the referendum but afraid to come out. Lineups in Donbass are huge as there are insufficient polling booths 1:100,000 instead of 1:2000 in some of the cities.
What do you think? 83% turn out and 97% in favour sounds reasonable. After all it worked last time. Stay tuned.
Update to a previous blog - if you have seen or heard anything about a pregnant woman murdered in the Odessa fire on May 2, ignore it. There was no pregnant woman in the building, even though the article with all the gruesome pictures showed one claiming to be someone cleaning the building at the time of the fire. The picture was fake.
Hm. Considering the pre-marked ballots, I'm thinking 110% turnout. It's hard to believe this can still happen even when it's clear to everyone that it's a sham.
ReplyDelete